Flow Analysis: Testing the TD Cowen Bitcoin ATH Forecast

The bullish thesis is now on the line. TD Cowen analysts are making a high-stakes forecast, calling for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high in the third quarter of 2026. Their core price target for the digital asset is a staggering approximately $177,000 by the end of 2026. This sets a clear, aggressive benchmark for the market to test.

For the stock that directly leverages this move, the call is equally bold. The firm maintains a $440 price target and "Buy" rating for Strategy Inc. (MSTR). This valuation implies a massive upside from current levels, betting that the company's financial strength will amplify Bitcoin's rally.

The rationale centers on positioning. Analysts argue that Strategy Inc. is "better positioned than ever" to benefit from a recovery. This stems from its growing Bitcoin treasury and strong balance sheet, which are seen as critical advantages as the market cycles. The setup is clear: a new ATH for Bitcoin in Q3, a path to $177k by year-end, and a stock poised to ride that wave.

Flow Metrics: The Liquidity Engine for the Forecast

The immediate market context is one of sharp de-leveraging and selling pressure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $544.94 million in net outflows on Wednesday, extending a two-day withdrawal streak. This selling pushed Bitcoin below $71,000, touching its lowest level since October 2024 and erasing recent gains. The flows show a clear shift from accumulation to risk management, with large accounts rotating capital and cutting leverage.

A major risk to the bullish trajectory is the presence of massive liquidation clusters. Data reveals significant forced selling pressure at key technical levels, including $88,120 (100x leverage) and $95,855 (10x leverage). These clusters represent a large pool of leveraged capital that could trigger cascading forced selling if Bitcoin breaks below these critical support levels. The recent price slide has already tested these zones, making the market vulnerable to further volatility.

The bottom line is that the TD Cowen forecast demands a powerful, sustained rally from these depressed levels. The current flow metrics-sharp ETF outflows and high liquidation risk-highlight the significant headwinds that must be overcome. For the $177,000 target to be feasible, the market needs to not only reverse this selling but also absorb the massive leveraged positions that could amplify any downside move. The liquidity engine is currently sputtering, not roaring.

Strategy Inc's Financial Flow and BTC Treasury Growth

The company's financial engine is firing on all cylinders. Total revenues surged 12.4% quarter-over-quarter to $128.7 million, handily beating estimates. This robust growth in core business earnings provides a tangible cash flow foundation that supports the stock independent of Bitcoin's price swings.

The real flow metric, however, is the Bitcoin treasury. Strategy Inc's holdings have expanded dramatically, with BTC per share increasing 3.5 times since 2020 to reach 200,197 BTC per share by the quarter's end. This isn't just a balance sheet item; it's a direct, quantifiable asset backing that grows in value as Bitcoin appreciates. It represents a massive, liquid reserve that can be leveraged or sold to fund operations or acquisitions.

This dual engine-strong revenue growth and a ballooning BTC treasury-creates a powerful feedback loop. The treasury acts as a tangible hedge for the bullish Bitcoin forecast, providing the company with a massive, appreciating asset base. For the stock, it offers a unique form of collateral, directly linking MSTR's valuation to the price of Bitcoin. Every dollar Bitcoin gains adds billions to the company's net asset value, making the $440 price target a function of both operational success and the digital asset's rally.