NEAR Flow Analysis: A $1.4B Market Cap and $100M TVL Reality

The market reality for NEAR is one of severe contraction. The token trades at $1.50, down more than 92% from its all-time high, with a total market cap of just $1.94 billion. This represents a deep bear market where capital and user engagement have been systematically withdrawn.

Total Value Locked (TVL) tells the same story of outflow. While it once reached $350 million, the current figure has collapsed to $100 million. This 71% drop from its recent peak underscores a dramatic drying up of liquidity and protocol activity, a key indicator of a bearish flow.

Liquidity is now extremely thin relative to the market size. The 24-hour trading volume sits at $66.51 million, which is less than 3.5% of the market cap. This low volume creates a fragile setup, where even modest selling pressure can trigger outsized price moves, amplifying the existing downtrend.

The Liquidity and Derivatives Pressure

A major derivatives liquidation event created a broad risk-off environment that directly pressured NEAR. Roughly $1.4 billion in crypto derivatives positions were liquidated as selling accelerated, dragging down the entire market. This forced selling and heightened volatility hit risk assets like NEAR, compounding its existing bearish flow.

On the technical side, the weekly chart shows the market is oversold, with the RSI at 27.58. This condition often precedes a short-term bounce as extreme pessimism gets priced in. However, this oversold bounce is not a reversal signal; it merely offers a temporary reprieve within the larger downtrend.

The immediate price action is defined by tight resistance and critical support. The first major resistance sits at $1.99, a level that must be convincingly broken for any meaningful rally. Below that, the price faces immediate support at $1.44. A break below this level would likely trigger further selling, extending the decline.

Catalysts and Risks: The Path Forward

The most tangible near-term catalyst is institutional interest. Grayscale's recent filing for a NEAR investment fund introduces a potential source of new, stable buying pressure. This move could begin to offset the outflow seen in TVL and trading volume, providing a floor for price action as capital seeks regulated exposure.

The primary risk remains the broader market's weakness. The recent sell-off that triggered $1.4 billion in derivatives liquidations also dragged down other major assets like Solana and BNB. Continued weakness in these correlated assets will act as a persistent headwind, making it difficult for NEAR to rally independently.

For a recovery to the medium-term forecast of a $1.35-$1.50 range, the market must first stabilize. This technical rebound depends on capital returning to the ecosystem and the extreme volatility from derivatives liquidations subsiding. Without that stabilization, the path to the $1.50 resistance level remains blocked.