Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. Set to Overtake Home Depot in Market Share by 2030: Analyst

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) is expected to continue gaining market share in the US hard surface flooring market due to its scale-driven efficiencies, superior value proposition, and disciplined store rollout. The company's market share is likely to surpass Home Depot's by 2030, cementing its dominance in the industry. FND's stock has appreciated 11% since the last bullish thesis was covered in June 2025.

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) is poised to continue its market dominance in the US hard surface flooring sector, according to recent analyses. The company's stock has appreciated by approximately 11% since the last bullish thesis was covered in June 2025, highlighting the potential for further growth.

FND has established itself as the clear leader in the $40 billion US hard surface flooring market, characterized by a handful of large retailers and thousands of smaller independents. While the overall market has been stagnant for the past three years, long-term structural growth remains intact as hard surface flooring continues to gain share over carpet, rising from 45% to about 60% of the total flooring market in the last decade [1].

The company's success can be attributed to its scale-driven efficiencies, superior value proposition, and disciplined store rollout. FND leverages direct sourcing relationships with over 240 suppliers to secure lower costs, passing savings to customers through its everyday low-price model, a broad 4,400-SKU selection per store, and design and installation services that historically differentiated independents. This strategy has enabled FND to consistently gain market share while competitors like Home Depot have remained flat, Lowe’s have lost ground, and independents have borne the brunt of the shift [1].

Independents, saddled with higher distributor-driven costs and narrower assortments, continue to cede share, a trend likely to accelerate in the current downturn. FND’s highly specialized, scale-driven “flywheel” business model reinforces its advantages over time, deepening its purchasing power as it grows. This enables a superior value proposition: lower prices, vast product range, and strong in-store service that build customer loyalty and further market share gains [1].

The company’s disciplined store rollout—currently 254 locations with a long-term target of 500+—and increasing store maturity provide significant runway for growth. With independents under pressure and structural tailwinds favoring hard surfaces, FND is positioned to overtake Home Depot in market share by 2030, cementing its dominance [1].

While FND is not on the list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds, it remains a compelling investment opportunity. As of the first quarter, 44 hedge fund portfolios held FND, up from 34 in the previous quarter. The company’s ability to maintain its competitive edge and capitalize on market trends makes it a strong contender for continued success [2].

References:
[1] https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/floor-decor-holdings-inc-fnd-192227065.html
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/floor-decor-holdings-inc-fnd-192227065.html