Flamingo/Tether Market Overview – 2025-09-26

• Price declined from 0.0265 to 0.0254 over 24 hours on FLMUSDT, with bearish momentum seen in early trading.
• Volatility expanded after 19:00 ET with a 0.0259–0.0248 range, and a 0.0253 consolidation by the end.
• RSI moved into oversold territory in the early hours, but failed to confirm a bounce.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-session, followed by a sharp move lower.
• Volume surged during the decline to 0.025 and remained elevated, confirming bearish sentiment.

FLMUSDT opened at 0.0265 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0254 at the same time on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour range was 0.0266 to 0.0248, with total volume of 12,909,082 and turnover of approximately $333,145. The pair showed bearish momentum, with a sharp decline between 16:30–18:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure formed a broadening top pattern, with key support levels at 0.0253 and 0.0250, and resistance at 0.0256. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 16:30 ET, confirming the breakdown of the 0.026 level. A doji appeared at 20:00 ET, suggesting indecision but failed to trigger a reversal. A strong bearish trend developed after 19:00 ET, with a series of lower closes confirming the breakdown of prior support into fresh territory.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart showed a steepening bearish crossover by 18:00 ET, reinforcing the downward momentum. The daily 50/100/200 EMA lines were not directly visible from the 15-minute dataset but likely aligned with the bearish trend. Price closed below all key moving averages, indicating a continued downtrend in the short to medium term.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the session, with the histogram shrinking slightly during consolidation periods, but remained negative for most of the 24-hour period. The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 at 10:00 ET but failed to generate a meaningful rebound, suggesting exhaustion or lack of buyer interest.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened between 19:30 and 20:00 ET, indicating a potential breakout. Price broke to the downside, expanding volatility and confirming the bearish bias. Price closed near the lower band at 0.0254, indicating continued bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume increased significantly during the breakdown from 0.026 to 0.025, especially between 16:30 and 18:00 ET. Turnover spiked to over $24,000 during the 16:30–17:00 ET session, confirming bearish conviction. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, as higher volume aligned with the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci retracement level at 0.0253 (38.2%) held during the consolidation phase but was later broken. The 61.8% level at 0.0257 acted as resistance during a minor retracement. A further breakdown below 0.0250 could target the 78.6% level at 0.0245.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described targets a 15-minute chart setup that combines a bearish engulfing pattern with a breakout below a key Fibonacci level. It aims to enter short positions on confirmation of the pattern and a close below the 38.2% retracement, with a stop placed above the engulfing pattern’s high. The strategy relies on high volume to confirm the move and assumes continuation of the trend over the next 6–12 hours. This aligns with today’s observed pattern at 16:30 ET, where the engulfing formation and subsequent breakout below 0.0253 could be used as a potential signal.