Six Flags' Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions Emerge on Attendance, Divestiture Strategy, and EBITDA Outlook

Date of Call: November 7, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $1.32B (Q3), down 2% YOY; attendance 21.1M, up 1% YOY; adjusted EBITDA ~ $550M, essentially flat YOY

Guidance:

• Full-year adjusted EBITDA updated to $780M–$805M.
• Assumed Nov–Dec attendance flat to down mid-single digits (each 1% ≈ $3M EBITDA).
• CapEx for 2026 projected ~ $400M (previously pulled down by ~ $100M vs earlier plans).
• No meaningful debt maturities until early 2027; secured leverage ~3x; first-lien covenant steps to 5x at year-end.
• Complete unified ticketing by year-end and ERP migration early 2026.

Business Commentary:

• Performance Variability Across Park Portfolio:
• 70% of park EBITDA in 2025 was attributed to the outperforming group, while 30% was from underperforming parks.

• The underperforming parks faced lower attendance and rising operating expenses, indicating a need for strategic adjustments to improve profitability.

• Revenue and Attendance Impact:

• Third-quarter revenues were $1.32 billion, down 2% year-on-year, with attendance at 21.1 million guests.

• The decline in September attendance by 5% or approximately 160,000 visits impacted third-quarter results, despite strong performance in July and August.

• Season Pass Sales and Pricing Strategy:

• Season pass sales were up in terms of pricing, with a 5% increase, although unit sales were soft.

• The company is reevaluating its season pass pricing and promotional strategies based on consumer feedback and market dynamics.

• Weather and Seasonal Challenges:

• The company noted that severe weather in the second quarter affected attendance, with September 2025 being 5% lower than the previous year due to reduced demand trends.
• The weather challenges and disruptions in seasonal sales contributed to the overall performance volatility throughout the year.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Neutral

• Management: "performance in 2025 has fallen short of our expectations." CFO: Q3 adjusted EBITDA ~$550M, "essentially in line with the third quarter last year." Company revised full-year adjusted EBITDA to $780M–$805M while emphasizing "underlying strength of our business," outperforming parks, and actions to monetize non-core assets and improve technology.

Q&A:

• Question from Steven Wieczynski (Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division): So a couple of questions here. I guess, first of all, when you guys talked about these outperforming parks versus the underperforming parks, can you actually maybe help us and quantify how many of your parks you're considering these days outperforming versus underperforming? And if we think about some of those underperforming parks, are any of those parks EBITDA negative right now?
  Response: Management declined to disclose counts; said outperforming parks represent ~70% of YTD EBITDA, underperformers are mostly small properties generating low-single-digit millions of EBITDA; no further specifics.

• Question from Steven Wieczynski (Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division): If we go back to February guidance (midpoint ~ $1.1B) and now you're near ~$800M midpoint, can you bridge the ~$300M delta — how much due to weather vs other factors?
  Response: Management said they won't provide a detailed bridge but that the majority of the miss is attendance-driven (weather, season-pass disruption and some execution missteps).

• Question from Ian Zaffino (Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division): At what point do underperforming parks become non-core? Are there specific metrics/bogeys and how much time will you spend fixing them before deeming them non-core?
  Response: Ongoing, market-by-market evaluation with Board involvement; decisions based on how fast demand can be ramped and returns vs alternatives — no fixed metric or strict timeline given.

• Question from Ian Zaffino (Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division): Update on the CEO search and what qualities you're looking for, and how that meshes with investor Travis Kelce?
  Response: Board-led, diligent search (nom/gov committee); strong candidate interest; no further public details at this time.

• Question from Benjamin Chaiken (Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division): For the remainder of Q4, what attendance expectations did you bake into guidance and what range of EBITDA outcomes corresponds to low vs high ends?
  Response: Guidance assumes Nov–Dec attendance flat to down mid-single digits; company estimates each 1% attendance change ≈ $3M EBITDA over the final two months.

• Question from Benjamin Chaiken (Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division): You previously mentioned ~500,000 attendance impact from removed operating days — how does that factor into the assumptions?
  Response: About ~500k visits relate to unplugged winter holiday events; the flat-to-down mid-single-digit assumption is an apples-to-apples comparison excluding those closed-event days.

• Question from Benjamin Chaiken (Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division): Timeline for deciding which underperforming parks stay vs are monetized — within 12 months?
  Response: They have identified low-hanging non-core candidates and are acting with urgency; expect refinement of decisions into 2026 based on park performance.

• Question from Thomas Yeh (Morgan Stanley, Research Division): What ROI timeline do you expect from OpEx investments before deeming a park non-core, and how does this fit into broader OpEx/CapEx targets?
  Response: Typical ramp: initial traction in year 1, clearer impact in year 2, full run-rates by year 3; CapEx/OpEx will be allocated park-by-park prioritizing highest-return opportunities.

• Question from Thomas Yeh (Morgan Stanley, Research Division): What drove the September moderation in attendance — any signs of broad consumer softness vs execution/other factors?
  Response: September softness reflected a mix: weather-driven season-pass disruption, some ineffective advertising and pricing moves made too quickly — not solely macro consumer weakness.

• Question from Thomas Yeh (Morgan Stanley, Research Division): Season pass pricing pacing up ~5% — is that harmonization or higher-tier take-up?
  Response: It's both: harmonization of programs and some migration to higher-tier products; unit sales are mixed by park and marketing/pricing changes are planned ahead of spring 2026.

• Question from Arpine Kocharyan (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division): You said product initiatives outpaced consumers this season — is this mainly pricing and will CapEx change materially for 2026?
  Response: It's broader than pricing — includes structure, timing and messaging; CapEx for 2026 was pulled back (~$100M reduction) to about $400M and will be continually evaluated.

• Question from Arpine Kocharyan (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division): In the portfolio review, what are the biggest hurdles to monetizing non-core parks and are you considering alternative uses?
  Response: Primary challenge is discerning core vs non-core economically and timing marketable opportunities; low-hanging real-estate monetizations (e.g., D.C., Santa Clara) largely executed; proceeds would be used to reduce debt.

• Question from Chris Woronka (Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division): How much customer research do you collect pre/post visit and what trends are you seeing from feedback?
  Response: Continuous weekly OSAT/NPS and periodic brand trackers plus targeted studies; key trend is increased consumer value-consciousness — strong-brand parks deliver perceived value and outperform.

• Question from Chris Woronka (Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division): Are you changing marketing spend as a percentage of revenue or the media mix materially?
  Response: They're re-evaluating market-specific media mix and allocation by park and channel; adjustments expected by market rather than a one-size-fits-all increase.

• Question from Elizabeth Dove (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division): What are the key building blocks you expect to achieve next year (attendance, per caps, etc.)?
  Response: Too early to quantify targets; season-pass sales are the primary leading indicator (revenue up on price but unit mix mixed); 2025 learnings will shape 2026 priorities.

• Question from Elizabeth Dove (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division): Does the Q4 guidance imply per-cap exit rates remain down and what are you seeing in consumer willingness to spend?
  Response: In-park per-cap spending remains encouraging; gate/pricing is mixed — strong parks can push price while others need value-focused adjustments; dynamic pricing underperformed in some markets.

• Question from Charles Scholes (Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division): Is the prior $400M 2026 CapEx projection still unchanged and has allocation shifted given focus on outperformers?
  Response: Yes, 2026 CapEx projected at ≈ $400M and the overall mix is largely unchanged though short-lead smaller projects remain flexible.

• Question from James Hardiman (Citigroup Inc., Research Division): How correlated is park operational performance with market value for monetization and how does that affect decisions?
  Response: Correlation varies — some parks’ land value exceeds operating value (DC, Santa Clara examples); most clear monetization opportunities already pursued; core high-performing parks in valuable markets are unlikely sells.

• Question from James Hardiman (Citigroup Inc., Research Division): On the JANA/Travis Kelce engagement — could his brand materially move the business and will he be active in marketing the parks?
  Response: Company described constructive engagement and strong consumer interest; Kelce has affinity for the parks and discussions are ongoing, but no concrete commercial arrangements announced.

Contradiction Point 1

Attendance and Consumer Behavior

It involves differing explanations of attendance and consumer behavior trends, which are crucial for understanding the company's performance and strategic direction.

Can you quantify the number of outperforming vs underperforming parks? Are any underperforming parks currently EBITDA-negative? - Steven Wieczynski (Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division)

2025Q3: Attendance year-to-date is down 2% versus '24. In the second quarter, we had a 3% decline in attendance versus the prior year. The biggest issue impacting attendance this year is a 6% decline in our season pass sales. - Richard Zimmerman(CEO)

Can you clarify your macro pressure comments? Are they due to weather or shifting customer spending patterns? Given strong spending in other consumer sectors, would a shift in customer spending patterns contradict that trend? - Steven Moyer Wieczynski (Stifel)

2025Q2: We're seeing some pressure on our lower-income consumer segment. We're monitoring the value proposition to ensure it's high. We're not seeing significant change in guest behavior once they're at the parks, but there's some pressure on the lower-end segment. - Richard Zimmerman(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Divestiture Strategy

It involves differing statements about the company's divestiture strategy, which could impact the company's future portfolio and financial performance.

When will underperforming parks be considered non-core, and how long will you invest in them before reclassifying? - Ian Zaffino (Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division)

2025Q3: We have been focused on the divestiture of noncore assets as an important strategic pillar for Six Flags. We've already made some significant progress in that effort. - Richard Zimmerman(CEO)

What's the outlook for divestitures and their impact on deleveraging targets? - Arpine Kocharyan (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division)

2025Q2: We're taking a strategic look at potential divestitures, with quick execution plans for noncore assets. The focus is on optimizing the portfolio through core objectives, reducing risk, and simplifying capital needs. - Richard Zimmerman(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Attendance and EBITDA Expectations

It involves changes in expectations for attendance and EBITDA, which are critical indicators for the company's financial performance and investor expectations.

What are your expectations for attendance and EBITDA for the rest of the year, given reduced operating days? - Benjamin Chaiken(Mizuho Securities USA LLC)

2025Q3: For November and December, attendance is expected to be flat to down mid-single digits. - Brian Witherow(CFO)

Why maintain full-year guidance given weather-related softness in April? - Arpine Kocharyan(UBS Investment Bank)

2025Q1: We remain confident due to strong demand trends, positive long lead indicators, and consumer behavior. - Richard Zimmerman(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Underperforming Parks Strategy

It involves the company's strategy regarding underperforming parks, which can impact the company's portfolio optimization and shareholder value.

What is the timeline for addressing underperforming parks and the potential for non-core asset monetization? - Benjamin Chaiken(Mizuho Securities USA LLC)

2025Q3: We already have a good understanding of which parks are non-core or strategic. We're building 2026 plans with a sense of urgency, and parks that don't meet expectations may pivot to non-core status. - Brian Witherow(CFO)

Was the closure of the Six Flags park in Maryland due to the land's value or part of a broader strategy to close underperforming assets? - Steve Wieczynski(Stifel)

2025Q1: We continue to evaluate opportunities to optimize our portfolio and improve shareholder value. - Richard Zimmerman(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Optimization of Smaller Parks

It involves the company's strategy regarding the optimization of smaller, non-core parks and their potential transactional value, which affects capital allocation and strategic growth plans.

How many parks are outperforming versus underperforming? Are any underperforming parks EBITDA-negative? - Steven Wieczynski(Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division)

2025Q3: The underperforming parks would contain the lion's share of small properties, with some in low single digits for EBITDA. Beyond that, specifics on park numbers and names are not provided. - Brian Witherow(CFO)

How are you optimizing smaller, noncore parks for potential transactions? - James Hardiman(Citigroup Inc., Research Division)

2024Q4: The framework considers each park's strategic value, real estate value, and financial goals. The focus is on optimizing the portfolio to reduce management complexity and risk, while ensuring the long-term growth strategy is maintained. - Richard Zimmerman(CEO)