Six Flags' Q1 Results Highlight Merger Growth, But Integration Struggles Linger

Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (SIX) reported its first quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a complex picture of post-merger progress and persistent challenges. While revenue surged due to the integration of its Cedar Fair and Six Flags operations, the company faced steep losses tied to merger-related costs, raising questions about its path to profitability.

Revenue Jumps, But Losses Mount

The merger’s immediate financial impact was clear: Q1 2025 net revenues soared to $202 million, nearly doubling from the $102 million reported in Q1 2024. This growth was driven by the inclusion of $111 million from legacy Six Flags parks, now part of the expanded portfolio. Attendance rose to 2.8 million guests, with 1.6 million of those coming from the newly merged parks—a sign of the company’s larger footprint.

However, profitability remains elusive. The net loss widened to $220 million, with $134 million attributed to losses at legacy Six Flags locations. Adjusted EBITDA posted a loss of $171 million, a $74 million deterioration from Q1 2024, as integration costs and operational adjustments took their toll.

Signs of Resilience Amid Challenges

Despite the red ink, early signals suggest stabilization. April 2025 preliminary results showed consolidated net revenues of $192 million and a 1% attendance increase versus April 2024. In-park spending also rose, with per capita spending climbing 6% to $65.40, reflecting stronger guest engagement.

CEO Richard Zimmerman emphasized that weather and economic uncertainty impacted near-term results but expressed confidence in long-term strategies. The merger’s expanded portfolio of 42 parks across North America offers scale to drive synergies, including shared resources, marketing, and investments in attractions.

Analysts Trim Forecasts, but Bulls See Upside

Analysts have tempered their expectations. Full-year 2025 revenue estimates were trimmed to $3.40 billion from $3.42 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) projections dropped sharply to $1.89 from $3.61. The stock’s 12-month average price target stands at $49.23—a 38.95% upside from its recent closing price of $35.43—while GuruFocus estimates a more conservative $45.29 (+27.83%).

Brokerage recommendations averaged 1.9 on a 1-5 scale, signaling a consensus “Outperform” stance. This optimism hinges on the merger’s long-term potential: the combined company can leverage Cedar Fair’s operational efficiency and Six Flags’ brand innovation to boost attendance and spending further.

The Bottom Line: Buy the Dip or Wait for Clarity?

Six Flags’ Q1 results underscore its dual identity as both a growth story and a work in progress. The revenue surge and attendance gains validate the merger’s scale benefits, while the widening EBITDA loss highlights execution risks.

Investors should weigh two key factors:
1. Short-term pain: Integration costs and legacy park underperformance may keep losses elevated in 2025.
2. Long-term promise: The 42-park portfolio and plans to invest in new attractions (e.g., technology-driven experiences) could drive sustainable growth.

With a reaffirmed full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance and analyst price targets averaging nearly $50, the stock appears priced for eventual success. However, patience is required: the path to profitability will depend on whether cost synergies materialize and guest spending continues to rise.

For now, the company’s 6% in-park spending increase and April’s attendance growth provide hope. If these trends hold, Six Flags could prove a compelling play on the post-merger theme—provided investors can stomach near-term volatility.

In conclusion, Six Flags’ Q1 results are a mixed bag, but the data points to a company in transition. With a valuation suggesting a 27%-39% upside, bulls may see value here, while bears will demand clearer profit visibility. The roller coaster ride isn’t over yet—literally or figuratively—but the destination could still be worth the ride.