Fitch Projects Boeing 737 MAX Production to Hit 38 Units Monthly by Q3 2025

Fitch Projects Boeing 737 MAX Production to Hit 38 Units Monthly by Q3 2025

Fitch Ratings has projected that Boeing's 737 MAX production will reach 38 units per month by the third quarter of 2025. This projection follows the ongoing scrutiny and regulatory actions surrounding the aircraft's safety issues, particularly the mid-air cabin panel blowout of a new Boeing 737 MAX 9 flight in January 2024 [1].

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is expected to scrutinize Boeing's role in the incident, with the board criticizing the company's safety culture and its failure to install four key bolts in the aircraft. The accident prompted the Justice Department to open a criminal investigation and declare that Boeing was not in compliance with a 2021 deferred prosecution agreement [1].

Following the incident, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) imposed a cap of 38 planes per month on MAX production, which is still in place. The FAA has since increased its oversight of Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems factories, addressing concerns about the agency's previous "hands-off" approach [1].

Boeing has been dealing with the fallout from the 737 MAX crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, which led to the company pleading guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge in 2024. However, Boeing struck a deal with the Justice Department to avoid a guilty plea and instead pay an additional $444.5 million into a crash victims fund [1].

Despite the challenges, Boeing has been working to regain trust and restore its reputation. The company's 737 MAX production has been gradually ramping up, and Fitch Ratings' projection reflects this recovery. However, the ongoing regulatory scrutiny and safety concerns may continue to impact the aircraft's production and delivery timelines.

References:
[1] https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2025-06-24/us-safety-board-to-scrutinize-boeing-role-in-737-max-9-mid-air-emergency