Firefly IPO Could Be More Exciting Than Figma, as a Mini SpaceX Fueled by Trump's Ambition

After the stunning debuts of Circle and Figma this year, the IPO market is heating up once again—and Firefly Aerospace could be the next to ignite investor excitement. With its reusable rocket technology, defense-driven capabilities, explosive growth backed by major defense contractors and NASA, and rising geopolitical focus on space, Firefly stands out as a true breakout candidate. Supported by surging revenues and a clear path to profitability, Firefly’s IPO may be even more compelling than Figma’s—offering a vision and scale the design-focused platform has yet to match.

The offering is being led by Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, Wells Fargo, and others, signaling strong Wall Street confidence in a successful launch. Firefly plans to list under the ticker “FLY” on August 7. Shares are expected to price between $35 and $39, raising approximately $16 million and valuing the company at up to $5.5 billion. Given the current red-hot IPO climate, pricing above this range is highly likely.

Mini SpaceX

Founded in Texas in 2017, Firefly is a private aerospace company focused on providing frequent rocket launches for national security, government, and commercial clients. It holds the distinction of being the only private firm to achieve a fully successful Moon landing—a milestone that not only demonstrates technological credibility but also opens the door for both defense deployment and advanced space exploration.

Rocket launches generally involve two core components: launch vehicles and spacecraft. Firefly's operations center on these two pillars—Alpha and Blue Ghost—while developing additional capabilities like Eclipse and Elytra.

Alpha is the first and only U.S.-made orbital rocket in the 1,000 kg class to successfully reach space, giving Firefly a competitive edge in a crowded market. As of March 2025, Alpha has completed six launches and secured over 30 future missions under contract. These include the VICTUS NOX mission—a rapid-response launch for the U.S. Space Force—as well as hypersonic testing services for the Department of Defense and launch services for NASA.

Eclipse, a reusable and upgraded version of Alpha, is in final development in partnership with Northrop Grumman. It's designed to deliver payloads of up to 16,000 kg into Low Earth Orbit, with the potential to reach even higher altitudes. The first flight is expected as early as 2026.

On the spacecraft side, Firefly's Blue Ghost became the first U.S.-based lander to complete a lunar surface mission since Apollo 17 in 1972, landing successfully on March 2. The mission carried NASA payloads to the Moon and earned Firefly $179 million as part of NASA’s CLPS program, with another $411 million in potential contracts on the table

Elytra, still in development, is geared toward defense. It’s designed for space domain awareness, on-orbit responsiveness, and warfighting support, primarily for the U.S. Department of Defense. Yet its modular architecture also enables broader applications, including commercial payload deployment and lunar imaging, expected as early as 2026.

Premium Clients and Strategic Partnerships

Firefly’s client base includes some of the most influential names in defense and aerospace: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, SpaceX, L3Harris, Blue Origin, the Department of Defense, and NASA. This elite customer lineup underscores the company’s strategic importance in the future of space operations.

The firm has received a $50 million equity investment from Northrop Grumman and signed multi-year agreements for up to 25 and 20 missions with Lockheed Martin and L3Harris, respectively. It also maintains a strategic partnership with SpaceX for payload processing and launch services. With SpaceX remaining privately held, Firefly may represent the closest public proxy to Elon Musk’s space empire—a smaller-scale version with massive potential.

These relationships have driven the company’s backlog to $1.1 billion as of March 31, 2025, a staggering jump compared to its $61 million revenue in 2024, signaling that most of Firefly’s growth is still ahead.

7x Revenue Growth and Path to Profitability

While the space sector remains capital-intensive, Firefly is showing strong financial momentum. The success of its Moon mission marked a turning point, shifting the company from a cash-burning startup into a commercial player.

In Q1 2025, Firefly posted $56 million in revenue, representing 572% year-over-year growth, which significantly outpaced the 424% increase in cost of sales. While gross margin was still modest at 4%, the widening gap between revenue and costs suggests margin expansion is on the horizon. Research and development costs rose 28%, and selling, general, and administrative expenses increased 33%—a sign of disciplined cost control relative to topline growth.

Importantly, net loss as a percentage of revenue fell dramatically—down to 108% in Q1 2025, from 634% the same period last year, and compared to 380% and 245% for the full years prior. With Alpha and Blue Ghost already commercialized, the worst of the financial burn may be behind, offering a clear rationale for an IPO in a more favorable market environment.

With a $1.1 billion backlog and accelerating revenue, supported by leading defense contractors and federal agencies, Firefly is well-positioned for the next phase of growth.

More importantly, President Trump’s ambition could further boost the stock, as he has consistently shown enthusiasm for high-profile innovations—whether it’s AI, crypto, nuclear energy, or now, space. As global space competition heats up, Firefly’s success signals America’s return to dominance on the Moon after 53 years. With only a handful of nations—the former Soviet Union, the U.S., China, India, and Japan—having achieved lunar landings, Firefly positions the U.S. to once again overtake China in the race for extraterrestrial resources. Backed by major defense players, DoD and NASA, Firefly is well-placed to deploy next-generation military and technological infrastructure on the Moon, potentially becoming a key beneficiary of the new space race.

Valuation Could Reach $11 Billion

Based on its proposed $5.5 billion valuation, Firefly would be trading at 25x its annualized Q1 revenue of $224 million—well below Rocket Lab’s 44x. Given Firefly’s growth trajectory, backlog strength, and elite backing, a 40x+ price-to-sales ratio appears reasonable, implying a potential market cap of $9 billion, or a 64% upside from the IPO midpoint.

In a frothy IPO market, a valuation approaching $11 billion at 50x p/s is not out of the question. The difference between Firefly and Figma lies in their ability to capture imagination and investor interest. Figma, while a powerful design tool with an AI twist, lacks the kind of visionary appeal that fuels market excitement. It’s more functional than aspirational—unlike Circle, which benefited from the allure of crypto and stablecoin narratives. Firefly, on the other hand, taps into the timeless fascination with space.

As a commercial aerospace company often compared to a smaller version of SpaceX, Firefly carries a level of ambition and symbolism that puts it in a unique category. Its blend of defense partnerships, NASA involvement, and Moon missions makes it more than just a business—it’s a story worth betting on.