Firefly Aerospace Soars 9.4% on Strategic Acquisition – What’s Fueling the Surge?

Summary
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY) surges 9.4% intraday to $31.12, breaking above its 52-week low of $26.05
• $855M acquisition of SciTec announced, combining defense software with space mission capabilities
• Options chain erupts with 144.44% price change ratio on 31-strike calls
• Turnover jumps to 3.1M shares, 5.87% of float, amid high implied volatility (90–106%)

Firefly Aerospace’s stock is in a tailwind-driven rally as the space and defense tech firm announces a $855 million acquisition of SciTec, a national security software leader. The 9.4% intraday surge has pushed FLY to a 52-week high of $31.68, fueled by speculative options activity and strategic positioning. With the stock trading 31% above its 30-day moving average of $40.24, the move reflects investor optimism about expanded defense capabilities and Golden Dome mission integration.

Strategic Acquisition Drives Firefly Aerospace's Sharp Rally
Firefly Aerospace’s 9.4% intraday surge is directly tied to its $855 million acquisition of SciTec, a defense software firm specializing in missile tracking, AI-enabled command systems, and cyber-secure data processing. The deal, valued at $50/share (a 75% premium to FLY’s $31.12 price), injects mission-critical capabilities into Firefly’s space launch and lunar services. SciTec’s $259 million U.S. Space Force contract and existing $164 million annual revenue add immediate credibility to Firefly’s national security positioning. CEO Jason Kim emphasized the acquisition’s role in accelerating Golden Dome, a classified defense initiative, while SciTec’s Princeton-based team will operate as a Firefly subsidiary under current CEO Jim Lisowski.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Steady as Firefly Outperforms
Options and Technical Plays for Firefly's Volatile Move
• RSI: 28.11 (oversold)
• MACD: -5.17 (bearish), Signal: -4.17, Histogram: -1.01
• Bollinger Bands: $23.16–$52.97 (FLY at 65% of upper band)
• 30D MA: $40.24 (FLY at 77% discount)

Firefly’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound from oversold RSI levels, though the bearish MACD and wide Bollinger Bands indicate volatility. The stock is trading 31% below its 30-day moving average, creating a potential mean-reversion setup. With the 52-week high at $73.8, bulls may target a 100% retracement to $52.97, but near-term resistance at $32.75 (31-strike call breakeven) is critical.

Top Options Picks:
• FLY20251017C31
- Type: Call
- Strike: $31.00
- Expiry: 2025-10-17
- IV: 99.31% (high volatility)
- LVR: 14.22% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.557 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.1646 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0768 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: 95,488 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $1.68/share (32.68 target)
- This call offers aggressive leverage with high gamma to capitalize on continued momentum. The 99% implied volatility and 14% leverage ratio amplify returns if FLY holds above $31.

• FLY20251024C31.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $31.50
- Expiry: 2025-10-24
- IV: 103.88% (extreme volatility)
- LVR: 11.50% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: 0.5356 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.1161 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0567 (less responsive)
- Turnover: 14,504 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $1.18/share (32.68 target)
- This longer-dated call balances volatility and time decay. The 103% IV and 11.5% leverage make it ideal for a 7–10 day holding period if FLY consolidates above $31.50.

Hook: Aggressive bulls should buy FLY20251017C31 into a test of $31.50 support. If $32.75 breaks, the 31.50-strike call offers 1:1.5 risk-reward.

Backtest Firefly Aerospace Stock Performance
I’m ready to run an event-study style back-test, but I want to make sure I’m using the correct security before I pull the data.• The U.S. ticker “FLY” (Fly Leasing Ltd.) was acquired and delisted in 2021, so there is no trading data from 2022 onward.• If you meant a different “FLY” (for example a Canadian or European listing, or perhaps “FRL.V” / “FLY.L” etc.), please let me know the exact symbol and exchange.• Alternatively, if you’d like to back-test a different listed company or ETF, just provide the ticker.Once I have the right symbol, I’ll:1. Retrieve the daily returns from 2022-01-01 to today.2. Flag every day with an intraday (close-to-close) gain ≥ 9 %.3. Run an event back-test to measure the subsequent performance after those surge days.4. Present the interactive results.Could you confirm the correct ticker (and exchange) you’d like to analyze?

Act Now: Firefly’s Acquisition Spark Could Ignite Further Gains
Firefly’s 9.4% rally is a high-conviction trade driven by its SciTec acquisition, which adds $164 million in annualized revenue and critical defense software. While the stock remains 58% below its 52-week high of $73.8, the 31-strike call options and 31.50-strike calls offer asymmetric upside if the market re-rates Firefly’s defense tech potential. Sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up 0.47%, suggesting broader aerospace optimism. Investors should watch the $31.50 support level and the October 17 expiry for near-term catalysts. Action: Buy FLY20251017C31 if $31.50 holds; exit 50% at $32.75 breakeven.