FinVolution Group's Q3 2025: Contradictions Emerge in Risk Management, Take Rates, and International Growth Amid Regulatory Adaptation

Date of Call: November 19, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: RMB 3.5 billion, up 6.4% YOY

Guidance:

• Full‑year 2025 total revenue expected to be approximately RMB 13.1 billion to RMB 13.7 billion (~0% to 5% YOY).
• Management warns full implementation of new consumer finance regulation in Q4 could create short‑term uncertainties for volume, revenue and risk metrics.
• Target to build a balanced portfolio with 50% of business from international markets by 2030.
• Accelerating share buybacks amid market dislocation (repurchases increased in Q4).

Business Commentary:

• International Business Growth:
• FinVolution's international transaction volume grew 33% year-over-year, with revenue up 37% year-over-year in Q3 2025.

• The growth was driven by expanding its borrower base, reaching a cumulative 10 million with new borrowers up 18% sequentially, and exceeding China's international new borrower count for 6 straight quarters.

• Regulatory Impact and Risk Management:

• The implementation of a new consumer finance regulation framework in China led to transitional effects in Q3, with day 1 delinquency rate increasing by 30 bps to 5% and 30-day collection rate softening to 88%.
• 

• The company proactively tightened credit standards, prudently managed loan growth, and communicated closely with funding partners to maintain stable funding supply, all while anticipating short-term uncertainties due to full implementation of the regulation.

• Shareholder Returns and Buyback Strategy:

• FinVolution repurchased approximately USD 2.6 million worth of shares in Q3, with a total value of approximately USD 66.5 million since October 2025, building on its cumulative share repurchase amount of USD 437 million since 2018.

• The accelerated buyback effort amid market price dislocation aligns with a commitment to shareholder returns, trading at just 0.6x of net book value and 1.5x of short-term liquidity.

• ESG Initiatives and Customer Service Enhancements:

• The company adopted AI to improve customer service fulfillment and consumer rights protection, enhancing its customer service AI agent to identify customer intent more accurately.
• This upgrade resulted in over 1 million successful service interactions during the quarter, demonstrating a commitment to ESG principles and improved customer experience.
  

  Sentiment Analysis:

  Overall Tone: Positive

  • Management emphasized a “resilient quarter” with total revenue up 6.4% YoY and international revenue a record 25% of group; CFO reiterated FY revenue guidance of RMB13.1–13.7bn while warning of short‑term regulatory uncertainty and highlighting accelerated buybacks and strong balance sheet (RMB7bn cash, 517% provision coverage).

Q&A:

• Question from Xiaoxiong Ye (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division): How should we expect the normalized take rate to settle in the next few quarters after asset quality stabilizes? And can you remind us of the current unused buyback quota and the expected pace/scale of buybacks over the next 12 months?
  Response: Take rate for the risk‑bearing portfolio should trend toward normal levels within the 24% cap (Q3 avg ~22%), though some services may narrow under the new regulation; buybacks have accelerated — USD78.4M repurchased as of Nov 14, with USD12M in Q4 so far, and management intends to continue active repurchases.

• Question from Yun‑Yin Wang (China Renaissance, Research Division): What were your day‑1 delinquency rate and 30‑day collection rate in Q3, and have you seen stabilization in Oct/Nov? How do you determine the inflection point of credit risk? Will overseas growth accelerate and which products drive growth in Indonesia and the Philippines?
  Response: Day‑1 delinquency rose to 5% (+30bps QoQ) and 30‑day collection fell to 88%; early October saw further pressure but by November day‑1 delinquency eased ~4% from October peak—management needs two consecutive months of sustained improvement to call an inflection; overseas growth should continue accelerating, driven by BNPL/installment rollout in Indonesia and e‑commerce partnerships (36% of volume) in the Philippines.

• Question from Dongping Zhou (China International Capital Corporation Limited, Research Division): With regulatory uncertainty, what measures has the company taken and what are the key priorities going forward?
  Response: Prioritize credit quality over volume: upgraded borrower mix, tightened underwriting, cut lower‑quality acquisition (sales & marketing down 12% QoQ) and strengthened collections; concurrently scale profitable international operations (diversified funding, licenses, partnerships) aiming for 50% international revenue by 2030.

Contradiction Point 1

Risk Management and Stability in Risk Indicators

It involves the stability of risk indicators and the company's approach to risk management, which are crucial for maintaining financial health and investor confidence.

Can you share the Q3 day 1 delinquency rate and 30-day loan collection rate? Have risk indicators stabilized since July, and how do you identify the inflection point in credit risk? - Yun-Yin Wang(China Renaissance)

2025Q3: We saw early signs of stabilization in November, but it's too early to draw conclusions. We are focusing on risk underwriting and collection strategies. - Jiayuan Xu(CFO)

What are the key drivers behind the quarter-over-quarter changes in your day 1 delinquency and collection ratios? What trends have you observed in July and August? Are you concerned about spillover risks to your core customer base from current regulatory uncertainty? - Xiaoxiong Ye(UBS Investment Bank)

2025Q2: Risk levels are largely in check, with some upward movement in July and August. Proactive management of loan portfolio and risk strategies have stabilized delinquency rate. - Jiayuan Xu(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

International Business Growth and Strategy

It involves the expected growth trajectory and strategic focus of the company's international business, which is a key driver for future expansion and revenue.

What were the Q3 day 1 delinquency rate and 30-day loan collection rate? Have risk indicators stabilized since July and how do you identify credit risk inflection points? Will overseas market growth accelerate and what are the primary product drivers in Indonesia and the Philippines? - Yun-Yin Wang(China Renaissance)

2025Q3: Our international business has maintained strong growth, with diverse products meeting various consumption scenarios in Indonesia and strong e-commerce partnerships in the Philippines. - Jiayuan Xu(CFO), Tiezheng Li(CEO)

How has your overseas business development compared to the initial year plan? How are previous debt and convertible bond (CB) issuances expected to contribute to overseas growth in upcoming quarters? Should overseas growth accelerate further from here? - Xiaoxiong Ye(UBS Investment Bank)

2025Q2: Strong momentum continues in July and August for international business. Indonesia's regulations removed uncertainties, allowing long-term planning. Diversification in product offerings and partnerships in Indonesia and the Philippines drive growth. - Jiayuan Xu(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

Impact of Regulatory Changes and Business Model Adaptation

It involves the company's response to regulatory changes and the impact on its business model, which could significantly affect operations and compliance.

Considering current regulatory changes, what should we expect for the normalized take rate in the next few quarters as asset quality stabilizes? - Xingxing Ye (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division)

2025Q3: The new regulation on loan facilitation in China is manageable and crucial for long-term industry development. It promotes compliance and benefits leading platforms with strong risk management and high compliance standards. - Jiayuan Xu(CFO)

Has the new Chinese loan facilitation regulation impacted your business? What basis adjustments have been made? - Cindy Wang (China Renaissance)

2025Q1: The global trade tensions have introduced economic challenges to Southeast Asia, affecting trade-oriented economies. However, our customers are mainly consumers, and loan demands are less affected by trade wars. - Tiezheng Li(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Take Rate Trend and Stabilization

It involves changes in financial performance metrics like the take rate, which are essential for understanding the company's financial health and stability.

With current regulatory changes, how will the normalized take rate settle in the next few quarters as asset quality stabilizes? - Xingxing Ye (UBS Investment Bank, Research Division)

2025Q3: Our risk-bearing loan stays within a 24% cap, averaging around 22% in Q3. We expect the take rate to track towards normal levels as risk and funding costs stabilize. - Jiayuan Xu(CFO)

What drove the improved take rate in China, and what's the outlook? - Alex Ye (UBS)

2025Q1: Our take rate in China increased by 10 basis points sequentially in Q1, driven by improved funding cost and extended loan tenure. Risk metrics and funding costs are at historically favorable levels, indicating stable take rates moving forward. - Jiayuan Xu(CFO)

Contradiction Point 5

International Market Growth Expectations

It highlights differing expectations for the growth and impact of international markets on the company's revenue, which is crucial for investors.

Can you provide the Q3 day 1 delinquency rate and 30-day loan collection rate? Have risk indicators stabilized since July, and how do you determine the inflection point of credit risk? - Yun-Yin Wang (China Renaissance, Research Division)

2025Q3: We maintained a strong growth momentum in our international business, with a 45% year-on-year increase in transaction volume, reaching RMB4.5 billion. - Tiezheng Li(CEO)

Can you provide more details on recent international expansion updates? Do you have any guidance for 2025 revenue and profit? Could you elaborate on developments in other regions beyond Indonesia and the Philippines? - Yada Li (CICC)

2025Q1: International markets grew strongly, with transaction volume surpassing RMB3 billion, a 36% year-over-year increase. - Jiayuan Xu(CFO)