How to Find Strong Aerospace Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises

Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider ATI?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. ATI (ATI) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.89 a share, just 27 days from its upcoming earnings release on April 30, 2026.

By taking the percentage difference between the $0.89 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.87 Zacks Consensus Estimate, ATI has an Earnings ESP of +1.75%. Investors should also know that ATI is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

ATI is one of just a large database of Aerospace stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Howmet (HWM).

Slated to report earnings on May 7, 2026, Howmet holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $1.11 a share 34 days from its next quarterly update.

For Howmet, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.10 is +1.26%.

ATI and HWM's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

Should You Invest in ATI Inc. (ATI)?

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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