Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined from a high of $2.926 to $2.484, ending at $2.484 as of 12:00 ET.
• Volatility increased midday, but momentum indicators suggest waning bullish pressure.
• Volume and turnover surged during bearish moves, confirming downward bias.

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at $2.699 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.926, and fell to a low of $2.474, closing at $2.484 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. Total 24-hour volume was 103,960,619.52, with a notional turnover of approximately $278,617,984. The price action was bearish, with strong volume support for downside momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price moved in a bearish wave from a high of $2.926, breaking below key support levels, including $2.80 and $2.70. A series of bearish engulfing patterns and long lower shadows suggested increasing seller pressure. A notable doji formed near $2.60, hinting at indecision or a potential short-term pivot point. The price is currently near a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the $2.474–$2.926 swing, which could provide near-term support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both sloping downward, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line, a bearish "death cross" signal. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA is near $2.75 and the 200-period near $2.80. Price is well below both, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line is below zero and continues to slope lower, with the histogram narrowing—suggesting weakening momentum. RSI is currently at 29, in oversold territory, suggesting the price may consolidate or retrace in the near term. However, without a bullish divergence, a strong rebound is unlikely without additional catalysts.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within the Bollinger Bands for most of the 24-hour period, with the lower band around $2.47–$2.50. The narrowing of the bands in the afternoon suggested decreasing volatility, followed by a sharp expansion after the doji at $2.60. Price is currently near the lower band, suggesting it may continue to consolidate near this level before a potential rebound.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred near $2.881 with a turnover of ~$2.5 million, supporting a bearish continuation. Subsequent bearish moves were also confirmed by rising volume. A divergence emerged between rising price and falling volume in the $2.50–$2.60 range, indicating possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key levels from the $2.474–$2.926 swing include 38.2% at $2.62 and 61.8% at $2.49. The current close at $2.484 is near the 61.8% level, which may act as support or trigger a short-term bounce. On the 15-minute chart, retracements of intraday swings also point to similar 38.2% and 61.8% levels reinforcing the $2.50–$2.60 range as a critical zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest based on event-driven candlestick patterns—particularly bearish engulfing and doji—could be effective in FILUSDT given its recent volatility. A strategy entering short on bearish engulfing patterns near key Fibonacci levels and exiting on RSI divergence could be tested with historical data once the correct ticker format (e.g., BINANCE:FILUSDT or BYBIT:FIL-USDT) is confirmed. The current price environment, marked by high volume and bearish momentum, supports testing such a strategy.