Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) Market Overview: 2025-10-08

• Price opened at 2.286 and closed at 2.301, forming a modest bullish bias with a high of 2.323.
• Key support at 2.281 and resistance at 2.307 observed, with a bearish divergence in volume after 03:30 ET.
• RSI reached overbought territory twice, while Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion, indicating rising volatility.
• A 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 14:15 ET, followed by a sharp reversal, suggesting short-term indecision.
• Total 24-hour volume was 4.83M FIL, and turnover hit $11.61M, with a notable drop in activity from 03:30 to 07:00 ET.

Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) opened at 2.286 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 2.301 by 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of 2.323 and a low of 2.248. Total volume traded over the period was 4,833,009.63 FIL, with a notional turnover of $11,605,228. The price exhibited moderate volatility, bouncing between key support and resistance levels, with mixed sentiment evident in the late-night bearish divergence and midday bullish momentum.

Structure and formations show a significant bearish breakdown from 2.301 to 2.264 between 03:30 and 04:00 ET, followed by a recovery toward 2.29. A strong 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern occurred at 14:15 ET, confirming a short-term reversal. A doji formed at 08:45 ET, indicating indecision at 2.294. Key support appears at 2.281 and resistance at 2.307, where price has repeatedly stalled.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show the price closing above the 20SMA but below the 50SMA, suggesting mixed near-term momentum. The 50-period MA is at 2.294, slightly below the current close. The 50/100/200-day moving averages (not shown for daily here) would likely provide longer-term context, but the 15-minute data indicates that price is in a tight range between 2.28 and 2.31.

MACD has been positive in the morning and afternoon, with a bearish crossover at 03:30 ET coinciding with the price drop. RSI peaked at overbought levels (70) at 14:15 and 16:30 ET before retreating, indicating some exhaustion in the upside. The RSI is now back to neutral, at ~50, suggesting potential for a consolidation phase. Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion as price moves closer to the upper band during the late morning and early afternoon, with a contraction following the sell-off.

Volume peaked at 295,526.65 FIL at 03:30 ET during the sharp decline and dropped afterward. Notional turnover spiked at the same time, but the volume did not confirm the price action, suggesting a possible divergence. After 07:00 ET, volume picked up again, especially after the 14:15 ET engulfing candle, but the overall flow remained unconfirmed. Divergences between price and volume suggest the market may not yet be committing to a clear direction.

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent swing high (2.323) and low (2.248), key levels at 2.297 (38.2%), 2.286 (50%), and 2.276 (61.8%) have been tested multiple times. The 50% level at 2.286 was a pivotal support, and a retest of the 38.2% level at 2.297 could indicate further consolidation or a potential resumption of the upward trend if buyers hold above that level.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve a combination of RSI divergence and Fibonacci retracement levels. Specifically, entering long positions when price pulls back to the 38.2% Fibonacci level (2.297) and RSI shows a bullish divergence (rising price, rising RSI) could offer a favorable risk-reward setup. A stop-loss below 2.286 (50% level) and a target at 2.307 (resistance) could be used. This strategy would likely benefit from the current tight range and defined key levels. Given the current RSI neutrality and mixed volume signals, backtesting this setup over a larger historical range could yield insights into its robustness in similar market conditions.