FIL -37.77% in 24 Hours Amid Sharp Downtrend and On-Chain Pressure

On AUG 28 2025, FIL dropped by 37.77% within 24 hours to reach $2.34, FIL dropped by 210.31% within 7 days, dropped by 75.25% within 1 month, and dropped by 5206.95% within 1 year.

Technical Deterioration and On-Chain Indicators Signal Continued Weakness

The recent price action of FIL has underscored a significant deterioration in sentiment and technical structure. The coin’s 24-hour drop of 37.77% has reinforced a prolonged bearish trend, with the 7-day and monthly drops extending to 210.31% and 75.25% respectively. On-chain data shows a marked increase in large outflows, indicating that long-term holders are continuing to offload their positions. Meanwhile, the absence of meaningful short-covering or buying interest has allowed the selloff to continue unabated.

The market appears to be correcting not just on a price basis but also structurally. Short-term volatility remains high, but the underlying trend continues to trend lower, supported by weak accumulation and strong distribution patterns. The absence of a bullish reversal pattern on daily and weekly charts reinforces the bearish outlook.

Analysts Flag Elevated Sell Pressure and Limited Support Levels

Analysts project continued downward momentum, citing elevated sell pressure and a lack of significant support levels to halt the decline. The recent breakdown below key psychological and technical levels has created a vacuum of buyer confidence. With the asset failing to show signs of stabilization or consolidation, the likelihood of a short-term rebound remains low.

Some observers note that the current price is approaching a critical threshold that may trigger further panic selling. If $2.00 is breached, this could accelerate the outflow of retail and institutional capital, deepening the bearish momentum. The cumulative volume profile also shows a sharp increase in selling during the past week, which supports the view that the selloff is far from over.

On-Chain Activity Reflects Structural Weakness

On-chain metrics have further deteriorated, reflecting structural weakness in the FIL ecosystem. The increase in active outflows, coupled with a decrease in inflows, has created a clear imbalance favoring sellers. The number of long-term holders continuing to move their FIL to exchanges suggests ongoing distribution rather than accumulation.

Additionally, the ratio of active addresses to total supply has declined, indicating that fewer participants are engaging with the asset. This is a bearish signal as it typically precedes further losses. The dominance of short-term holders in recent outflows highlights the lack of conviction among investors and the growing perception of FIL as a high-risk, low-liquidity asset.

Key Technical Indicators Suggest a Deepening Decline

The technical landscape remains firmly bearish, with key indicators such as RSI and MACD showing extreme oversold conditions. While this could, in theory, signal a short-term bounce, the broader trend suggests that such a bounce is likely to be short-lived. The RSI remains below 30, indicating continued selling pressure, while the MACD has yet to show any signs of divergence or a bullish crossover.

The price has also failed to hold above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The absence of a clear reversal pattern or a strong bounce from these levels increases the likelihood of further downward movement in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the prevailing technical and on-chain conditions, a backtest hypothesis would likely focus on strategies designed to capture continued bearish momentum. A potential approach might involve short-selling FIL at key support levels with a stop-loss placed above recent resistance. Alternatively, a trend-following strategy could be employed, using moving averages to determine entry and exit points in the direction of the prevailing downtrend.

However, due to the nature of FIL's recent volatility and the lack of a clear accumulation phase, a purely bearish strategy with tight risk management is most appropriate. This aligns with the observed technical indicators and on-chain activity, which suggest that a long-term bottom is still distant and that further downside remains probable.