FIGR's 20% Drop: Flow Metrics vs. EPS Disappointment

The market's verdict was swift and severe. Shares of FIGR plunged approximately 20% on Friday, February 26, 2026, following its disappointing fourth-quarter earnings report. The stock opened sharply lower at $30.89, gapping down from the prior close of $34.04, and ultimately closed at $28.35. This violent move was amplified by heavy trading, with volume surging to 4,319,057 shares.

The catalyst was a clear earnings miss. The company reported $0.06 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analyst expectations by a significant margin. This bottom-line disappointment overshadowed the strong top-line growth, which saw revenue climb 90.7% year-over-year. The sell-off reflects a classic flow reaction: investors are prioritizing near-term profitability over long-term growth narratives.

The drop marks a sharp reversal from the stock's recent highs, which had approached $74 in January. This 20% single-day decline underscores the heightened sensitivity of crypto-linked equities to execution risks, even as they demonstrate rapid revenue expansion.

The Flow Behind the Numbers: Volume vs. Take Rate

The core business is scaling at an explosive rate. Consumer Loan Marketplace volume surged 131% year-over-year to $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter. This reflects a powerful network effect, driven by the addition of 307 partners and new product lines like small-business and DSCR lending. The platform's activity is the real story, far outpacing the EPS disappointment.

Yet the margin pressure is clear. The net take rate, a key profitability metric, declined slightly quarter-over-quarter due to a shift in business mix. Management expects it to range between 3.5%-4% in 2026, a signal that the rapid growth in lower-margin products like first-lien mortgages and auto loans is pressuring overall yield.

The strategic pivot is evident in the flow. Figure Connect volume now accounts for 54% of total marketplace volume, up from minimal levels a year ago. This move to a capital-light model, where the company facilitates deals without holding the loans, is driving higher Adjusted EBITDA margins but captures less net revenue per dollar of volume. The flow is shifting, and the market is weighing the trade-off.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch Next

The market's reaction has been swift, but the forward setup is defined by a clear capital allocation signal and a focused growth strategy. The board's authorization of a $200 million share repurchase program through February 2027 is a bullish capital allocation move. It signals confidence in the balance sheet and provides a direct floor for the stock, especially as the company holds about $1.2 billion in cash. This program is a tangible use of excess capital that can support price.

The key growth catalysts are now explicitly outlined. Management has framed 2026 as "the year of the first lien", with first-lien originations already at ~19% of Q4 volume. This strategic push into higher-volume, mortgage-adjacent categories is designed to scale the marketplace further. A new auto finance partnership with Agora Data adds another product line to broaden the ecosystem and drive volume.

Supportive macro conditions could amplify the flow. The broader crypto market sentiment, which saw a violent relief rally earlier this week, provides a positive correlation for a blockchain-native capital platform. While the stock's drop is a direct reaction to earnings, a sustained recovery in crypto sentiment could reduce the perceived risk premium on such equities.

The primary risk remains the execution of the capital-light transition. The shift to Figure Connect, which now drives over half of volume, is pressuring the net take rate. The market will scrutinize whether the projected 2026 range of 3.5%-4% is sustainable as the company scales into new, potentially lower-margin products. The path to profitability is clear, but the timeline and margin trajectory are the next metrics to watch.