Figma's Stock Plummets 19%: Earnings, AI Investments, and Lockup Expiry Spark Turbulence

Summary
• Figma’s Q2 revenue surged 41% to $249.6M, outpacing Wall Street forecasts.
• CEO Dylan Field warned of margin compression due to aggressive AI investments.
• 25% of employee shares will unlock post-market close, risking supply-driven dilution.

Figma’s stock has cratered 19.5% intraday, trading at $54.87 after a volatile session that saw it swing from a $57.35 high to a $53.20 low. The collapse follows a post-IPO earnings report that highlighted growth but signaled near-term margin pressures, while a looming lockup expiry threatens to flood the market with shares.

Earnings Optimism Derailed by AI Investment Caution and Lockup Expiry
Figma’s post-IPO earnings report, while technically positive (41% revenue growth), triggered a sell-off as investors grappled with two critical factors. First, CEO Dylan Field explicitly warned that AI investments would depress margins in the near term, a red flag for profit-focused traders. Second, the impending lockup expiry—releasing 25% of employee-held shares—introduced immediate supply-side risks. The market’s reaction was compounded by a 33% growth forecast for Q3, a sharp deceleration from prior performance, which signaled potential saturation in Figma’s growth trajectory.

Software Sector Volatility: Figma's Drop Outpaces Adobe's Decline
The Software—Application sector, led by Adobe (ADBE) at -2.06%, has seen mixed reactions to AI-driven strategies. Figma’s 19.5% plunge, however, far exceeds sector norms, reflecting its unique exposure to margin pressures and liquidity risks. Adobe’s more measured decline underscores the sector’s broader skepticism toward AI-heavy R&D bets, with investors favoring established players with clearer monetization paths.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Figma's Volatility with Strategic Puts and Calls
• MACD: -8.93 (bearish divergence)
• RSI: 35.09 (oversold territory)
• Bollinger Bands: 53.20 (lower band) to 88.58 (upper band)

Figma’s technicals suggest a short-term oversold condition, but structural risks remain. Key levels to watch include the 52W low of $53.20 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $60.77. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

• FIG20250912P55 (Put, $55 strike, 9/12 expiry):
- IV: 93.16% (elevated volatility)
- Delta: -0.458 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.046 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0488 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $477K (liquid)
- Leverage: 17.81% (moderate)
This put option offers asymmetric upside if Figma breaks below $53.20, with IV amplifying potential gains. A 5% downside to $52.12 would yield a $2.88 payoff, translating to a 52% return on the $5.50 premium.

• FIG20250919C55 (Call, $55 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 72.77% (reasonable)
- Delta: 0.545 (balanced exposure)
- Theta: -0.174 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0471 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $1.35M (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 15.77% (moderate)
This call is ideal for a rebound above $57.35, with gamma amplifying gains if the stock rallies. A 5% upside to $57.56 would yield a $2.56 payoff, a 46% return on the $5.50 premium.

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls may consider FIG20250919C55 into a bounce above $57.35, while bears should monitor FIG20250912P55 for a breakdown below $53.20.

Backtest Figma Stock Performance

Figma's Crucible: Navigating AI-Driven Volatility and Lockup Risks
Figma’s 19.5% drop reflects a market recalibration to its AI-driven margin risks and liquidity challenges. While the 52W low of $53.20 offers a near-term floor, the path forward hinges on whether the stock can retest $60.77 (50% retracement) or succumb to further selling pressure. Investors should closely monitor Adobe (ADBE, -2.06%) as a sector barometer. Act now: Short-term traders should prioritize FIG20250912P55 for a breakdown below $53.20, while longer-term bulls may wait for a $57.35 retest before initiating calls.