Figma (FIG) Surges 6.63% in Two-Day Rally as Overbought RSI and Diverging Volume Signal Caution

Figma (FIG) has surged 6.63% in the most recent session, extending its two-day winning streak with an 8.83% cumulative gain. The price action reflects a sharp rebound from a prior decline, with recent highs reaching $58.88 and lows dipping to $53.31. This reversal pattern, combined with the candlestick structure showing strong upper shadows on bearish days, suggests potential short-term consolidation or a breakout attempt.

Candlestick Theory

The recent two-day bullish trend forms a "tweezers bottom" pattern, signaling a potential reversal after a downtrend. Key support levels are identified at $53.31 (a previous trough) and $52.22, while resistance clusters near $57.49 and $58.88. The candlestick bodies indicate strong buying pressure on up days but bearish exhaustion on down days, with volume surging during the rally.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum aligns with the 50-day MA (calculated at $62.50) being above the 200-day MA ($70.15), suggesting a bearish trend despite recent gains. The price is currently below all three MAs, indicating a potential continuation of the longer-term downtrend. However, the 100-day MA ($65.30) crossing below the 200-day MA in recent weeks signals a bearish crossover, reinforcing caution.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line (12-period) crossed below the signal line (26-period) on September 15, indicating weakening momentum. The KDJ indicator shows the J-line (3-period) at 85, while D (3-period) remains at 78, suggesting overbought conditions. However, a divergence between the RSI and KDJ—where RSI peaks at 72 but KDJ peaks at 85—hints at potential exhaustion in the upward move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to $12.30 (width of $58.88 - $46.58). The current price sits near the upper band, indicating overbought conditions. A contraction in band width during the September 16–17 period preceded the recent rally, suggesting a potential breakout or reversal.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked to 12 million shares on the most recent up day, validating the rally’s strength. However, volume declined on subsequent days despite higher prices, creating a bearish divergence. This pattern may indicate waning buyer conviction, raising concerns about the sustainability of the upward move.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI has reached 72, entering overbought territory. While this suggests a potential pullback, historical context shows RSI frequently exceeded 70 during sharp corrections in 2025. A close below 50 would confirm a bearish shift, but caution is warranted due to the RSI’s tendency to remain overbought during strong trends.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels from the recent high of $122 to the low of $52.22 include 38.2% at $76.85, 50% at $87.11, and 61.8% at $97.63. The current price near $58.41 aligns with the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential support zone. A break below $53.31 could trigger a test of the 78.6% level at $46.58.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtested strategy of buying Figma when RSI exceeds 70 and selling on the next overbought reversal yielded a -50.93% return from 2022 to 2025, underperforming the benchmark by 52.92%. This aligns with the current RSI overbought condition and highlights the risk of relying solely on RSI without corroborating signals from other indicators. The negative Sharpe Ratio (-0.96) and 0% maximum drawdown underscore the strategy’s unreliability, particularly in volatile markets where RSI can remain overbought for extended periods. Integrating volume divergence and MACD signals could improve the strategy’s robustness, as demonstrated by the recent volume contraction despite rising prices.