Figma (FIG) Plunges 6.2% Intraday: Can AI-Driven Design Software Rebound?

Summary
• Figma (FIG) trades at $36.29, down 6.2% from its $38.69 previous close
• Intraday range spans $36.27 to $38.68, reflecting sharp volatility
• Analysts project 62.1% upside potential to $62.86 despite current 39.8% discount to price target

Figma’s stock has plunged nearly 70% since its July IPO, with today’s 6.2% intraday drop deepening investor concerns. The design software leader faces pressure from delayed AI monetization, heavy R&D spending, and sector-wide skepticism about its $1.7B 2028 revenue forecast. With options volatility surging and technical indicators flashing mixed signals, the battle between AI optimism and execution risks defines this critical juncture.

AI Monetization Delays and Margin Pressures Spark Selloff
The sharp decline stems from mounting concerns about Figma’s ability to convert its AI investments into revenue. While the company’s $214.1M 2028 EPS projection hinges on a 236x P/E multiple, analysts warn that sustained heavy spending on AI infrastructure, M&A, and integration costs could compress margins. Recent news highlights risks that AI features like Figma Make and Buzz may not achieve expected adoption rates, slowing expansion within large accounts. Additionally, high stock-based compensation tied to its IPO process threatens to dilute earnings per share even if absolute profits rise.

Application Software Sector Mixed as Adobe Gains Ground
The broader application software sector shows divergent momentum, with Adobe (ADBE) rising 1.94% intraday while Figma tumbles. Adobe’s recent earnings beat and 38% revenue growth contrast with Figma’s 21.2% projected 3-year revenue CAGR. This divergence highlights sector-specific challenges for AI-native tools, as traditional software leaders leverage established ecosystems to maintain margins. Figma’s 52-week low of $32.83 now looms as critical support, while Adobe’s strong execution underscores the risks of delayed monetization strategies in AI-driven markets.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with Strategic Put/Call Spreads
• RSI: 77.65 (overbought)
• MACD: -2.17 (bearish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $33.47 (lower band) vs $36.29 (current price)
• 30D MA: $39.99 (price below key support)

Technical indicators suggest short-term bearish momentum, with RSI near overbought territory and MACD signaling bearish divergence. The 200-day MA remains unavailable, but the 30D MA at $39.99 forms a critical resistance level. With the Leverage Shares 2X Long FIG Daily ETF (FIGG) down 12.25%, leveraged products amplify downside risk. For options traders, two contracts stand out:

• FIG20251219P34.5 (Put):
- Strike: $34.50
- Expiry: 2025-12-19
- IV: 49.17% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.23 (sensitive to price swings)
- Theta: -0.0049 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.1156 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 2,602 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 98.00%
- Payoff at 5% Down: $1.395 (max(0, 34.50 - 34.48))
- This put option offers asymmetric upside with high gamma to benefit from volatility spikes.

• FIG20251219C37 (Call):
- Strike: $37.00
- Expiry: 2025-12-19
- IV: 52.66% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.417 (balanced exposure)
- Theta: -0.143 (aggressive decay)
- Gamma: 0.138 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 56,284 (high liquidity)
- Leverage Ratio: 44.22%
- Payoff at 5% Down: $0.00 (max(0, 34.48 - 37.00))
- This call option provides downside protection with high liquidity for position adjustments.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls may consider a short-dated put spread using FIG20251219P34.5 for volatility capture, while conservative investors should monitor the $33.47 lower Bollinger Band as a potential reversal level. With Adobe (ADBE) rising 1.94%, sector rotation could provide catalysts for a bounce above $36.99 (middle Bollinger Band).

Backtest Figma Stock Performance
The backtest of FIG's performance after a -6% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present reveals a challenging period for the stock. The maximum return during the backtest was -15.88% over 30 days, with a 3-day win rate of 27.59% and a 10-day win rate of 31.03%. The maximum return day was recorded on December 12, 2025.

Critical Crossroads: Watch $33.47 Support and Adobe’s Momentum
Figma’s 6.2% intraday drop underscores the fragility of its AI-driven growth narrative, with key risks including delayed monetization and margin compression. While the 52-week low of $32.83 remains a critical psychological barrier, the $33.47 lower Bollinger Band offers a near-term support level to watch. Adobe’s 1.94% rise highlights sector-wide skepticism about AI-native tools, suggesting investors may rotate to established players with proven monetization. For now, the Leverage Shares 2X Long FIG Daily ETF (FIGG) and the FIG20251219P34.5 put option present strategic opportunities for those betting on volatility. Action: Monitor $33.47 support and Adobe’s momentum; consider short-dated puts for volatility capture if the price breaks below $36.99.