Fidelity Select Materials Portfolio: Navigating Q3 2025 Volatility Through Sector Resilience and Strategic Rotation

The Fidelity Select Materials Portfolio (FSDPX) entered Q3 2025 amid a complex macroeconomic landscape, marked by shifting U.S. trade policy uncertainty, lingering inflationary pressures, and a Fed pause on rate cuts. Despite these headwinds, the fund's strategic focus on materials sector resilience-particularly in copper and precious metals-offered a counterbalance to broader market volatility. This analysis examines the fund's performance, its positioning within a cyclical sector, and the implications for investors navigating a shifting economic environment.

Q3 2025 Performance: A Mixed Picture Against a Benchmark

For the three months ending September 30, 2025, FSDPX's Retail Class shares returned 4.56%, trailing the MSCI U.S. IMI Materials Index's 5.59% gain. This underperformance, while modest, reflects the fund's historical challenges, as it has consistently ranked in the bottom 22.5% of its Morningstar category. The materials sector itself faced headwinds in 2025, lagging the S&P 500 due to macroeconomic uncertainties and sector-specific issues such as overcapacity in chemicals and stagnant demand.

The fund's semiannual performance (through August 31, 2025) fared slightly better, with a 6.50% return compared to the MSCI Materials Index's 6.88%. This gap, though narrow, underscores the sector's inherent volatility and the challenges of active management in a highly cyclical space.

Strategic Positioning: Copper, Precious Metals, and AI-Driven Demand

FSDPX's Q3 2025 commentary highlighted a strategic pivot toward materials with strong supply-demand fundamentals. Portfolio manager Ashley Fernandes emphasized copper's pivotal role in the energy transition and AI infrastructure, noting that supply constraints and surging demand from renewable energy projects and data centers position the metal for growth. Precious metals, particularly silver, also gained attention for their dual role as both industrial commodities and stores of value.

The fund's sector allocation as of November 30, 2025, further illustrates this focus: industrial gases accounted for 19.01% of holdings, while U.S. exposure dominated at 73.59%. This concentration aligns with FSDPX's objective of capital appreciation through targeted exposure to raw materials and intermediate goods. However, the fund's active share of 34.38% suggests a moderate deviation from its benchmark, indicating a balanced approach to sector rotation.

Sector Rotation in a Shifting Cycle

While FSDPX's Q3 2025 rotation strategy remains partially opaque, broader Fidelity insights provide context. Sector rotation strategies typically adjust allocations based on the business cycle, favoring economically sensitive sectors like materials in early-to-mid cycles. In Q3 2025, the materials sector's 5.59% gain suggests that FSDPX may have leaned into cyclical plays as the Fed signaled potential rate cuts and trade war fears abated.

However, the fund's performance in sub-industries varied. Chemical producers, particularly specialty chemicals, struggled with stagnant demand and overcapacity, while construction materials benefited from improved interest-rate conditions. This divergence highlights the importance of granular stock selection-a strength of FSDPX's active management approach.

Macro Risks and Future Outlook

The materials sector's resilience in Q3 2025 was tempered by macroeconomic risks. U.S. trade policy shifts and inflationary pressures continued to weigh on corporate fundamentals, though the Fed's eventual pivot toward easing provided some relief. Internationally, lower interest rates and strong corporate earnings supported growth in other economies, indirectly influencing sector dynamics.

Looking ahead, FSDPX's focus on copper and AI-related chemicals positions it to capitalize on long-term trends. Copper demand is expected to surge due to its role in electric vehicles and renewable energy, while specialty chemicals supporting AI infrastructure are gaining traction. However, investors must remain cautious about sector-specific risks, such as overcapacity in industrial gases and the volatility of precious metals.

Conclusion: A Case for Active Management in a Cyclical Sector

FSDPX's Q3 2025 performance underscores the challenges of managing a materials-focused fund in a volatile macroeconomic environment. While its returns lagged the benchmark, the fund's strategic emphasis on copper, precious metals, and AI-driven demand reflects a disciplined approach to sector rotation. For investors, the key takeaway is the importance of aligning with a fund's active management philosophy and understanding the cyclical nature of the materials sector. As the Fed's policy trajectory and global trade dynamics evolve, FSDPX's ability to adapt its sector allocations will be critical to outperforming in 2026.