FICO Shares Plummet Despite Strong Earnings as Insider Selling and Mixed Institutional Moves Send Trading Volume to 449th in U.S. Rankings

Market Snapshot

Fair Isaac (FICO) experienced a 0.70% decline in share price on November 26, 2025, as trading volume dropped 42.32% to $0.20 billion, ranking it 449th among U.S. stocks by daily dollar volume. The company reported quarterly earnings of $7.74 per share, exceeding estimates by $0.38, and revenue of $515.75 million, up 13.6% year-over-year. Despite these positive earnings results, the stock’s performance was dampened by mixed signals from insider transactions and institutional investor activity.

Key Drivers

The stock’s decline occurred amid a wave of insider selling and conflicting institutional investor actions. CEO William J. Lansing sold 6,011 shares for $9.24 million, marking a 12.48% reduction in his holdings, while other insiders sold a total of 20,432 shares valued at $32.25 million over the past 90 days. This selling pressure contrasted with a $2.17 billion price target set by RBC Capital, which reaffirmed a “Buy” rating, and a $2,100 target from Jefferies. Analysts at Zacks Research upgraded the stock to “Strong-Buy,” while others, including Raymond James, cut their price targets, reflecting divergent views on the company’s valuation.

Institutional investors also displayed mixed signals. Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. reduced its stake by 1.2%, selling 2,062 shares, while DNB Asset Management AS increased its position by 4.8% to hold 4,384 shares. Vanguard Group Inc. and Geode Capital Management LLC both expanded their holdings, but the net outflows from top executives and institutional sellers likely contributed to the stock’s downward momentum. The market’s sensitivity to insider sentiment was amplified by FICO’s high beta of 1.34, making it particularly vulnerable to shifts in investor confidence.

The earnings report, while strong, failed to fully offset the negative sentiment. FICO’s quarterly revenue growth and improved net margin of 32.80% underscored its operational resilience, yet the stock’s volume contraction and price drop suggested investors prioritized caution. This was further compounded by recent insider transactions, including a $4.16 million sale by CEO Lansing and a $24.15 EPS forecast from analysts, which, while optimistic, may have been priced into the market ahead of the earnings release.

Analyst activity also highlighted uncertainty. While three firms maintained “Strong-Buy” ratings, others, like UBS Group, raised price targets to $2,400 but assigned “Neutral” ratings. The overall consensus of “Moderate Buy” with an average target of $2,118.50 indicated a cautious optimism, yet the stock’s immediate reaction—falling despite a $0.38 EPS beat—suggested investors were discounting near-term risks, such as the CEO’s significant share sales and broader insider selling trends.

Finally, the sharp drop in trading volume to $0.20 billion, coupled with the stock’s 3.46% insider ownership, pointed to potential liquidity constraints and reduced institutional interest. This divergence between fundamentals and market behavior underscores the complex interplay of earnings performance, insider sentiment, and institutional positioning in shaping FICO’s short-term trajectory.