FICO's Price Targets Soar as Insiders Sell and ROE Dips Negative

Forward-Looking Analysis

Analysts have raised price targets for Fair Isaac, with Wells Fargo lifting its target to $2,500 and Jefferies to $2,200, while Zacks downgraded from "strong-buy" to "hold." The consensus rating remains "Moderate Buy" with an average price target of $2,092.15. Institutional investors, including Sawgrass Asset Management and Norges Bank, have increased stakes in Q3, while Whittier Trust reduced its position by 24.9%. Analysts project 24.15 EPS for the current year, though Q1 specifics are unspecified. Q3 results exceeded expectations (EPS $7.74, revenue $515.8M, +13.6% YoY), but the company reported a negative return on equity of 43.97%.

Historical Performance Review

Fair Isaac’s 2025Q4 results showed revenue of $515.75 million, net income of $155.01 million, EPS of $6.48, and gross profit of $424.57 million. The quarter marked a 13.6% YoY revenue increase and a net margin of 32.75%, though ROE remained negative. Institutional ownership grew, with 85.75% of shares held by hedge funds and other investors.

Additional News

Insider selling accelerated in late 2025, with CEO William J. Lansing and CFO Steven P. Weber reducing stakes by 18% and 33.71%, respectively. Director Eva Manolis sold 60.23% of her holdings. Institutional investors like Brown Advisory and Edgewood Management increased positions, while Whittier Trust’s stake fell to 5,372 shares. Analysts remain divided, with nine "Buy" ratings and five "Hold" ratings.

Summary & Outlook

Fair Isaac’s strong revenue growth and analyst optimism suggest upside potential, supported by institutional buying and product demand. However, insider selling and a negative ROE highlight risks. The P/E ratio of 58.08 and PEG of 1.65 indicate valuation concerns. While 2026 EPS projections are robust, execution and market conditions will determine outcomes. A bullish stance is warranted, but investors should monitor insider activity and ROE trends.