FET's 15% Surge: Is Binance's Bullish Momentum a Buy Signal or a Flash Crash Prelude?

The Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) token's 15% price surge in October 2025 has ignited debates about whether this is a sustainable bullish trend or a prelude to a sharp correction. Driven by aggressive long positions from Binance traders-accounting for 40% of open interest in FET futures valued at $79 million-the rally has defied a prior 81% decline linked to partnership issues, according to a Coinotag report. However, technical indicators and exchange-driven sentiment paint a nuanced picture, blending optimism with caution.

Technical Analysis: Oversold Conditions vs. Fragile Momentum

FET's recent surge has brought it to a critical juncture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits below 30, signaling oversold conditions-a classic precursor to rebounds, Coinotag notes. Yet the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, suggesting fragile bullish momentum, as Coinotag also observes. This divergence highlights a key risk: while oversold conditions often precede bounces, the MACD's failure to turn positive could indicate lingering bearish sentiment.

Historical backtesting of RSI-oversold entry points offers further context. A strategy of buying FET when RSI dips below 30 and holding for 30 trading days has shown mixed but instructive results from 2022 to 2025. While the hit rate of profitable trades varies, the average return during this period underscores the importance of timing and market context, as shown in an RSI backtest.

The token faces a formidable resistance zone between $0.34 and $0.39, a level that has historically capped upward movement, according to a CryptoNews piece. Breaking through this range would validate the rally, potentially targeting $0.75 and beyond, per a CoinEngineer analysis. However, failure to do so could trigger a retracement toward $0.11, erasing recent gains, Coinotag warns.

Volume data adds another layer of complexity. FET's 24-hour trading volume spiked to $237.44 million during the surge, reinforcing liquidity and buying pressure, the CoinEngineer analysis reports. Yet over the past seven days, the token has fallen 23.25%, despite high liquidity of $171.60 million, CryptoNews notes. This mixed performance underscores the volatility of altcoins in a market where macro trends in Bitcoin and Ethereum often dictate broader sentiment.

Binance-Driven Sentiment: Accumulation or Short-Term Speculation?

Binance traders have been central to FET's recent momentum. Their taker buy-sell ratio of 1.09-a measure of immediate buying pressure-signals strong support, Coinotag reports. Additionally, spot market accumulation absorbed a $432,000 sell-off, suggesting institutional or savvy retail investors are positioning for a longer-term play, Coinotag adds.

However, derivatives activity tells a different story. While Binance's 40% dominance in FET futures open interest indicates concentrated bullish bets, it also raises the risk of a flash crash if these positions are liquidated, Coinotag cautions. Historical 30-day trade data from Binance shows buying pressure often exceeds selling volume before surges, but this pattern can reverse rapidly in volatile markets, the CoinEngineer analysis finds.

Order book depth analysis, though limited by data availability, suggests liquidity clusters at the $0.34–$0.39 resistance zone. Tools like CoinGlass's liquidity heatmaps and DepthMap charts could help traders visualize these clusters, but the lack of real-time data from Binance's API (which only provides historical tick-level data up to November 2024, as noted in the Binance API docs) complicates precise assessments.

The Verdict: Buy Signal or Flash Crash Prelude?

FET's 15% surge is a textbook example of exchange-driven momentum. Binance's aggressive long positions and spot accumulation suggest confidence in the token's fundamentals, particularly if the Artificial Superintelligence Alliance delivers on promised use cases, Coinotag reports. The oversold RSI and elevated volume further support a case for a short-term rebound.

Yet the technical risks are significant. The MACD's negative territory and the fragile resistance at $0.34–$0.39 mean this rally could unravel quickly. Investors should monitor whether Binance's buying pressure persists and whether builders or partners announce near-term deliverables to justify the surge, Coinotag advises.

For now, FET appears to be in a high-risk, high-reward scenario. The surge could be a buy signal for those betting on a breakout above $0.39, but it also carries the hallmarks of a flash crash prelude if the resistance fails. As always, liquidity and volume sustainability will be key indicators of the token's trajectory.