Ferroglobe PLC's Strategic Positioning Amid Global Trade Dynamics and Regulatory Gains

Ferroglobe PLC (GSM) faces a pivotal juncture in 2026 as it navigates a complex interplay of trade policy shifts, regulatory interventions, and technological innovation. The company's third-quarter 2025 results underscored its challenges: a 19.4% sequential sales decline and a 28.1% year-over-year drop, driven by weak demand and aggressive low-priced imports, particularly from China, according to a Globe and Mail report. Yet, beneath these short-term headwinds lies a strategic repositioning that could unlock long-term value.

Trade Policy Tailwinds in the U.S. and EU

The U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty case involving Ferroglobe has advanced to a critical phase. Preliminary decisions in early 2026 signal a favorable outcome, with the CEO emphasizing that these measures could help domestic producers "regain market share" amid import pressures, as reported by a Manila Times report. This aligns with broader U.S. efforts to bolster domestic industrial capacity, particularly under the Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivizes clean energy and battery production, as noted in a Ferroglobe press release.

In the EU, safeguard measures on silicon metal-expected to be finalized on November 18, 2025-could further stabilize Ferroglobe's European operations. As the "leading domestic producer in Europe," the company stands to benefit from reduced import competition, which has eroded its market share in recent quarters, as noted in a Ferroglobe press release. While the exact terms of the EU ruling remain undisclosed, management anticipates a "significant enhancement" to market conditions in 2026, according to a Globe and Mail report.

Silicon Anode Innovation and EV Battery Market Growth

Ferroglobe's partnership with Coreshell represents a forward-looking bet on the electric vehicle (EV) battery revolution. By leveraging high-purity metallurgical silicon and nanomaterial coatings, the duo aims to produce silicon anodes that store 10 times more energy than graphite, potentially increasing EV range by 30%, as reported in a Ferroglobe press release. Pilot deliveries to OEMs began in late 2025, with commercial applications in robotics and defense slated for early 2026, as reported in a Manila Times report.

The EV battery market itself is poised for robust growth. Valued at $76.99 billion in 2025, it is projected to reach $115.21 billion by 2032, driven by environmental policies and technological advancements, according to a Fortune Business Insights report. Ferroglobe's silicon-based solutions could carve out a niche in this expanding sector, particularly as solid-state battery (SSB) technology-promised by Toyota for 2027–2028-enters the mainstream, as reported in an Interesting Engineering report.

Long-Term Value Creation and Market Share Recovery

Ferroglobe's dual focus on regulatory tailwinds and technological differentiation positions it to recover lost ground. The anticipated U.S. and EU trade measures could mitigate the impact of Chinese imports, restoring pricing power and volume stability. Meanwhile, its silicon anode technology offers a high-margin entry into the EV supply chain, a sector expected to grow at a 5.9% CAGR, according to a Fortune Business Insights report.

However, risks persist. The EV battery market is highly competitive, with solid-state batteries from firms like Toyota threatening to disrupt existing technologies, as reported in an Interesting Engineering report. Ferroglobe must ensure its silicon anode solutions remain cost-competitive and scalable.

Conclusion

Ferroglobe's strategic positioning in 2026 hinges on two pillars: regulatory relief in key markets and innovation in EV battery materials. While near-term sales declines are concerning, the company's proactive engagement with trade policy and its partnership with Coreshell suggest a path to long-term value creation. Investors should monitor the EU safeguard decision in November 2025 and the commercialization timeline for silicon anodes, as these milestones will define Ferroglobe's trajectory in the coming years.