Ferrari Soars 2.8% on F1 Drama and Market Optimism—What’s Fueling the Surge?

Summary
• Ferrari’s stock surges 2.82% intraday to $463.95, hitting a 52-week high of $464.17.
• Leclerc’s blunt assessment of Ferrari’s F1 struggles and Hamilton’s rocky start at the team dominate headlines.
• Sector peers like Tesla (-0.09%) underperform as automotive news highlights EV challenges and software-defined vehicle trends.

Ferrari’s sharp intraday rally defies a mixed automotive sector, driven by a mix of F1-related headlines and technical momentum. The stock’s 2.82% gain—its strongest in months—reflects both market optimism and lingering questions about the company’s long-term fundamentals.

F1 Performance Concerns and Hamilton’s Struggles Spark Market Optimism
Ferrari’s stock surge stems from a paradoxical mix of negative F1 news and speculative optimism. Charles Leclerc’s admission that Ferrari is unlikely to challenge McLaren at any remaining 2025 Grand Prix circuits has amplified concerns about the team’s competitiveness. Simultaneously, Lewis Hamilton’s ongoing struggles—highlighted by a former Ferrari engineer comparing his issues to Sebastian Vettel’s past challenges—have fueled speculation about potential fixes or strategic shifts. Investors appear to interpret these challenges as short-term noise rather than structural risks, particularly as the stock trades near its 52-week high and dynamic PE of 42.02 suggests growth expectations remain intact.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in Ferrari’s Bullish Move
• MACD: -12.72 (bearish divergence), Signal Line: -9.30 (oversold), Histogram: -3.41 (negative momentum)
• RSI: 21.11 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: $408.35–$543.31 (wide range), 200D MA: $458.28 (below price)
• 30D/100D/200D MA: $481.13/$467.34/$458.28 (bullish crossover potential)

Technical indicators suggest a short-term bullish bias, with RSI at oversold levels and price near the upper Bollinger Band. The 200-day MA at $458.28 acts as a key support. Aggressive bulls should target a break above $464.17 (intraday high) to confirm momentum, while bears watch for a drop below $431.40 (200D support).

Top Options Picks:
• RACE20250919C460 (Call, $460 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 22.27% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 29.43% (high), Delta: 0.576 (moderate), Theta: -0.411 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0119 (sensitive to price swings), Turnover: 66,983 (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($487.10), payoff = $27.10 per contract. This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet.
• RACE20250919C470 (Call, $470 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 21.42% (moderate), Leverage Ratio: 44.57% (very high), Delta: 0.453 (moderate), Theta: -0.358 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.0125 (high sensitivity), Turnover: 8,340 (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($487.10), payoff = $17.10 per contract. This option’s high leverage and gamma make it ideal for aggressive traders expecting a sharp move.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider RACE20250919C460 into a break above $464.17, while hedgers might pair it with a short-term put for downside protection.

Backtest Ferrari Stock Performance
The backtest of a 3% intraday surge on the RACE index shows no impact on the entire market, with the maximum return being 3.74% on a single day. This suggests that a 3% intraday surge in the RACE index does not consistently lead to significant broader market gains.

Act Now: Ferrari’s Rally Faces Key Resistance—Here’s Your Playbook
Ferrari’s 2.82% rally hinges on its ability to hold above $464.17 (intraday high) and avoid a retest of the 200D MA at $458.28. The RSI’s oversold reading and MACD divergence suggest a potential short-term rebound, but long-term buyers should wait for a confirmed breakout above $481.13 (30D MA). Meanwhile, Tesla’s -0.09% drag on the automotive sector underscores the need for caution. Investors should prioritize RACE20250919C460 for a high-leverage, high-liquidity play, while monitoring F1-related headlines for sentiment shifts. Watch for $464.17 breakdown or regulatory reaction.