Ferrari Soars 2.6%—Can F1 Drama and Technical Momentum Sustain the Rally?

Summary
• Ferrari’s RACE stock surges 2.6% intraday to $462.975, hitting a 52-week high of $464.69.
• Lewis Hamilton’s bullish F1 comments clash with Leclerc’s blunt assessment of Ferrari’s struggles.
• Technical indicators show RSI at 21.11 (oversold) and 200D MA at $458.28 (below price).

Ferrari’s sharp intraday rally defies a mixed automotive sector, driven by a mix of F1-related headlines and technical momentum. The stock’s 2.6% gain—its strongest in months—reflects both market optimism and lingering questions about the company’s long-term fundamentals. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and dynamic PE of 41.93 suggesting growth expectations remain intact, investors are weighing whether the rally is a short-term bounce or a sign of deeper conviction.

F1 Drama and Market Optimism Ignite Rally
Ferrari’s stock surge stems from a paradoxical mix of negative F1 news and speculative optimism. Charles Leclerc’s admission that Ferrari is unlikely to challenge McLaren at any remaining 2025 Grand Prix circuits has amplified concerns about the team’s competitiveness. Simultaneously, Lewis Hamilton’s ongoing struggles—highlighted by a former Ferrari engineer comparing his issues to Sebastian Vettel’s past challenges—have fueled speculation about potential fixes or strategic shifts. Investors appear to interpret these challenges as short-term noise rather than structural risks, particularly as the stock trades near its 52-week high and dynamic PE of 42.02 suggests growth expectations remain intact.

Automotive Sector Mixed as Tesla Drags
The automotive sector remains fragmented, with Tesla (TSLA) down 1.43% intraday, underscoring broader EV challenges. Ferrari’s rally contrasts with sector peers like Tesla, which grapples with software-defined vehicle trends and regulatory scrutiny. While Ferrari’s F1 narrative drives speculative fervor, the sector’s focus on EV innovation and cost pressures highlights divergent trajectories.

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in Ferrari’s Bullish Move
• 200D MA: $458.28 (below price)
• RSI: 21.11 (oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: $408.35–$543.31 (wide range)
• MACD: -12.72 (bearish divergence)
• 30D/100D/200D MA: $481.13/$467.34/$458.28 (bullish crossover potential)

Aggressive bulls should target a break above $464.17 (intraday high) to confirm momentum, while bears watch for a drop below $431.40 (200D support). The RSI’s oversold reading and MACD divergence suggest a potential short-term rebound, but long-term buyers should wait for a confirmed breakout above $481.13 (30D MA).

Top Options Picks:
• RACE20250919C460 (Call, $460 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 24.50% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 29.28% (high)
- Delta: 0.546551 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.415897 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.011007 (sensitive to price swings)
- Turnover: 71,393 (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($487.10), payoff = $27.10 per contract. This call offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet.
• RACE20250919C470 (Call, $470 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 24.39% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 41.55% (very high)
- Delta: 0.436590 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.370729 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.010992 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 9,450 (liquid)
- Payoff: At 5% upside ($487.10), payoff = $17.10 per contract. This option’s high leverage and gamma make it ideal for aggressive traders expecting a sharp move.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider RACE20250919C460 into a break above $464.17, while hedgers might pair it with a short-term put for downside protection.

Backtest Ferrari Stock Performance
The backtest of RACE's performance after a 3% intraday surge shows no impact on the stock, with the maximum return during the backtest period being 3.74% on day 48. This suggests that RACE is capable of experiencing positive gains in the aftermath of a significant intraday surge, but the impact is not consistently positive or reliably predictable.

Watch for $464.17 Breakdown or Regulatory Reaction
Ferrari’s 2.6% rally hinges on its ability to hold above $464.17 (intraday high) and avoid a retest of the 200D MA at $458.28. The RSI’s oversold reading and MACD divergence suggest a potential short-term rebound, but long-term buyers should wait for a confirmed breakout above $481.13 (30D MA). Meanwhile, Tesla’s -1.43% drag on the automotive sector underscores the need for caution. Investors should prioritize RACE20250919C460 for a high-leverage, high-liquidity play, while monitoring F1-related headlines for sentiment shifts. Watch for $464.17 breakdown or regulatory reaction.