Ferrari Slows Down: Q3 Shipment Drop Hits the Brakes on Stock Growth

Ferrari N.V. (NYSE: RACE), the iconic Italian luxury sports car manufacturer, reported a 2% decline in shipments during the third quarter of 2024, marking a slowdown in its otherwise robust growth trajectory. This shipment drop, primarily driven by a 29% decrease in China, has raised concerns among investors, leading to a 6% drop in Milan-listed shares following the results.

Despite the shipment decline, Ferrari's core earnings increased by 7% in Q3, thanks to a richer product mix and increased demand for personalization. The introduction of new, high-end models, such as the €2m V12 Daytona SP3 and the €5.1m 499P Modificata, contributed a €60m positive quarterly result. This strategic move, combined with strong demand for the 12Cilindri car family, led to exceptional order book visibility well into 2026.


Ferrari's adjusted EBITDA totalled €638m in Q3, roughly matching analysts' forecasts, as the company maintained its profitability despite the shipment decline. However, the stock's decline indicates investor caution, as some metrics came in slightly below expectations.

The 2% drop in shipments was not a reflection of a demand deficit but rather a strategic allocation to maintain margins (Bernstein). Ferrari's exceptional order book visibility, driven by strong demand for its 12Cilindri car family, demonstrates the company's ability to manage its production and allocation strategy effectively.


Ferrari's revenue growth of 7% on a richer product mix and increased customization, despite a 2% drop in shipments, showcases its ability to maintain profitability even with lower volumes. This is supported by its adjusted EBITDA margin of 38.8%, up from 37.4% in Q3 2023. Despite the shipment decline, Ferrari's full-year guidance remains intact, with expected sales of over €6.55 billion, adjusted EBIT of at least €1.82 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of at least €2.50 billion.

In conclusion, while Ferrari's Q3 shipment drop raised concerns among investors, the company's ability to offset this decline through strategic product positioning and strong demand for high-end models demonstrates its resilience. As Ferrari continues to navigate the challenges of the auto industry and the shift towards electric vehicles, investors should remain cautious yet optimistic about the company's long-term prospects.