Ferrari Plummets 3.7% as Analyst Downgrades and Hamilton's Struggles Weigh on Investor Sentiment

Summary
• Ferrari (RACE) trades at $361.42, down 3.7% intraday, hitting a 23-month low.
• Jefferies and Oddo BHF slash estimates, citing delayed F80 deliveries and margin pressures.
• Lewis Hamilton’s post-Abu Dhabi GP comments and Leclerc’s future uncertainty deepen concerns.
• Technical indicators signal a bearish trend with RSI at 34.9 and MACD below signal line.
Ferrari’s sharp decline reflects a perfect storm of analyst skepticism, operational challenges, and Formula 1 turbulence. With the stock trading near its 52-week low of $356.97, investors are bracing for a prolonged bearish phase as earnings expectations and shipment forecasts dim.

Analyst Downgrades and Hamilton’s Struggles Spark Sell-Off
Ferrari’s 3.7% intraday drop stems from a cascade of bearish catalysts. Jefferies trimmed 2026 EPS estimates by 7% to €9.32, citing delayed F80 hypercar deliveries and margin dilution from rising depreciation. Oddo BHF followed suit, cutting its price target to €340 and labeling the stock a 'Neutral' pick. Compounding these concerns, Lewis Hamilton’s post-Abu Dhabi GP remarks—admitting he 'doesn’t have a mindset into next year'—highlighted Ferrari’s operational struggles. Meanwhile, Charles Leclerc’s potential exit looms as a wildcard, with Aston Martin reportedly monitoring his contract. These factors, combined with a weak technical setup, triggered a liquidity-driven selloff.

Automotive Sector Mixed as Toyota Rises
While Ferrari tumbles, the broader automotive sector shows divergence. Toyota Motor (TM) rose 1.7% intraday, outperforming as it navigates supply chain stability and hybrid demand. This contrast underscores Ferrari’s unique challenges: its luxury niche faces margin compression from delayed model launches and regulatory uncertainty, unlike mass-market peers. The sector’s mixed performance highlights Ferrari’s vulnerability to brand-specific risks, including Formula 1’s impact on its premium image.

Bearish Playbook: Puts and ETFs for a Volatile Rally
• 200-day MA: $453.56 (far above current price)
• RSI: 34.9 (oversold)
• MACD: -7.63 (bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: 366.53 (lower band) vs. 361.42 (current price)
• Support/Resistance: 391.37–392.31 (30D) vs. 477.81–480.65 (200D)
Ferrari’s technicals paint a bleak picture. The stock is entrenched in a short- and long-term bearish trend, with RSI near oversold territory and Bollinger Bands squeezing near the lower bound. Key support levels at $366.53 and $356.97 (52W low) are critical for near-term stability. A 5% downside scenario to $343.35 could trigger panic selling, making puts attractive for aggressive bearish bets.
Top Options:
• RACE20251219P350 (Put):
- Strike: $350, Expiry: 2025-12-19
- IV: 35.94% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.277 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.009 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.0156 (modest price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $145,516 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 95.14% (high potential return)
- Payoff at $343.35: $6.65 per contract
- Why it stands out: High leverage and liquidity make this put ideal for a 5% downside scenario, with moderate delta ensuring meaningful gains if the stock breaks below $350.
• RACE20260116P350 (Put):
- Strike: $350, Expiry: 2026-01-16
- IV: 30.69% (lower)
- Delta: -0.3398 (higher sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0549 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.0102 (lower price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $155,685 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 42.29% (moderate potential return)
- Payoff at $343.35: $6.65 per contract
- Why it stands out: Longer-dated put offers time decay protection, with higher delta amplifying gains if the stock continues its decline into early 2026.
Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize RACE20251219P350 for a short-term bearish play, while RACE20260116P350 suits those expecting prolonged weakness. Both contracts offer compelling risk/reward profiles in a deteriorating technical environment.

Backtest Ferrari Stock Performance
The backtest of the RACE performance after a -4% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present shows that the event had no impact on the overall market. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.06%, which occurred on the maximum return day, indicating that the market was able to recover from the plunge and even exceed its previous levels.

Bearish Momentum Unlikely to Abate—Watch $350 Support
Ferrari’s bearish momentum shows no immediate reversal, with technical indicators and analyst sentiment aligned against a near-term rebound. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week low and weak RSI reading suggest further downside risks, particularly if Leclerc’s future or F80 delivery delays escalate. Investors should monitor the $350 level as a critical support; a break below this could trigger a cascade to $340. Meanwhile, the sector leader Toyota’s 1.7% gain highlights Ferrari’s unique vulnerabilities. Act now: Short-term bears should target RACE20251219P350, while long-term holders should brace for volatility until the 2026 F1 season’s outcome clarifies Ferrari’s strategic direction.