Ferrari Plummets 2.75% Amid Analyst Downgrades and F1 Woes—What’s Next for the Prancing Horse?

Summary
• Ferrari (RACE) tumbles 2.75% intraday to $365.015, hitting a 23-month low.
• Jefferies and Oddo BHF slash estimates, citing weaker shipment forecasts and margin pressures.
• Lewis Hamilton’s underwhelming F1 debut with Ferrari and Leclerc’s contract uncertainty weigh on sentiment.
• RSI at 34.9 and MACD (-7.63) signal bearish momentum as the stock trades below key moving averages.

Ferrari’s shares are in freefall as a perfect storm of analyst downgrades, regulatory concerns, and Formula 1 performance struggles collide. The stock’s 2.75% drop—its worst intraday move since 2024—reflects growing skepticism about the luxury automaker’s ability to navigate a challenging 2026 outlook. With the 52-week low at $356.965 now in sight, investors are scrambling to parse whether this is a buying opportunity or a deeper crisis in the making.

Analyst Downgrades and F1 Struggles Weigh on Ferrari’s Valuation
Ferrari’s sharp decline is driven by a cascade of bearish catalysts. Jefferies slashed 2026 EPS estimates to €9.32, 7% below consensus, while Oddo BHF cut its price target to €340 and trimmed F80 hypercar delivery forecasts. These downgrades reflect concerns over slower model rollouts, margin dilution from depreciation, and weaker shipment growth. Compounding this, Lewis Hamilton’s underwhelming F1 season—his first without a podium since 2007—and Charles Leclerc’s potential exit have eroded brand prestige. Analysts now project Ferrari’s 2026 revenue growth at 8.2% ex-FX, far below its historical pace, as the company faces a make-or-break year to deliver a competitive F1 package and stabilize its luxury car business.

Bearish Playbook: Puts and Put Options for a Volatile Finish
• 200D MA: 453.56 (well above current price)
• RSI: 34.9 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -7.63 (negative divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band at $366.53

Ferrari’s technicals scream caution. The stock is trading below its 30D ($397.26), 100D ($442.77), and 200D ($453.56) averages, with RSI in oversold territory and MACD signaling bearish momentum. The 52-week low at $356.965 is now a critical support level. For traders, the RACE20251219P350 put option (strike $350, expiring Dec 19) and RACE20260116P350 (strike $350, expiring Jan 16) stand out. Both offer high leverage (141.16% and 52.03%) and implied volatility (32.98% and 29.02%), with strong liquidity (turnover of 150,161 and 157,075).

RACE20251219P350:
• Delta: -0.220 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0155 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0149 (responsive to price swings)
• Leverage Ratio: 141.16% (amplifies downside)
• IV Ratio: 32.98% (attractive volatility)
• Turnover: 150,161 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% Downside: $346.76 → max(0, 350 - 346.76) = $3.24 per contract
• Why it works: High leverage and IV make this put ideal for a short-term bearish bet, with strong liquidity to enter/exit.

RACE20260116P350:
• Delta: -0.305 (higher sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0516 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0103 (modest responsiveness)
• Leverage Ratio: 52.03% (balanced risk/reward)
• IV Ratio: 29.02% (reasonable volatility)
• Turnover: 157,075 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% Downside: $346.76 → max(0, 350 - 346.76) = $3.24 per contract
• Why it works: Longer-dated put with strong liquidity and moderate IV, offering a safer play for a prolonged bearish move.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize RACE20251219P350 for immediate exposure, while RACE20260116P350 suits a more conservative, longer-term bearish stance.

Backtest Ferrari Stock Performance
The backtest of RACE's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -3% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 56.18%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.23%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.83%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.82%, which occurred on day 58, suggesting that while there is some volatility, RACE can exhibit strong recovery in the following weeks.

Break the $350 Floor, and Ferrari’s Freefall May Intensify
Ferrari’s technical and fundamental headwinds suggest a continuation of the downward spiral unless a catalyst emerges—such as a surprise F1 turnaround or a sharp rebound in shipment forecasts. The 52-week low at $356.965 is now a critical psychological barrier; a break below this could trigger a wave of stop-loss orders and force further analyst downgrades. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) remains the sector’s bright spot, up 2.39% as EV demand outpaces luxury car caution. Investors should monitor the $350 level and Jefferies’ 2026 EPS guidance for clues on Ferrari’s next move. For now, the put options highlighted above offer the most compelling short-side exposure to a stock in distress.