Ferrari Plummets 2.38% Amid Leadership Shakeup: Is This the Start of a Bearish Downtrend?

Summary
• Lewis Hamilton's race engineer Riccardo Adami moves to Ferrari's driver academy, triggering market jitters.
• RACE trades at $346.14, down 2.38% from $354.57, with intraday range of $344.91–$351.90.
• Options volatility surges as 2026-02-20 put/call contracts see 28%–27% price swings.

Ferrari's stock faces a sharp intraday selloff as the Formula 1 team restructures Hamilton's engineering team. The move, coupled with technical indicators pointing to bearish momentum, has triggered a 2.38% drop. With the stock testing its 52-week low of $344.91, investors are weighing the implications of leadership changes and deteriorating technicals.

Leadership Reshuffle Sparks Investor Anxiety
Ferrari's 2.38% decline stems directly from the abrupt reassignment of Lewis Hamilton's race engineer Riccardo Adami to the driver academy. This move, announced amid persistent rumors of communication breakdowns between Hamilton and Adami, has raised concerns about Ferrari's ability to maintain performance consistency. The news coincides with Hamilton's underwhelming 2025 season—his first without a podium finish—and fuels speculation about the team's organizational stability. While Ferrari insists the change is unrelated to performance issues, the market is interpreting it as a sign of internal friction that could hinder competitive output in 2026.

Bearish Technicals and Volatility-Driven Options Playbook
• 200-day MA: $443.81 (well above current price)
• RSI: 33.97 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -6.15 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $346.14, below lower band of $355.98

The technical landscape for RACE is deeply bearish, with price action breaking below critical support levels and momentum indicators confirming a deteriorating trend. The stock is now trading near its 52-week low, with the RSI in oversold territory but no immediate reversal signals. For options traders, the 2026-02-20 put/call contracts offer strategic opportunities:

• RACE20260220P340 (Put):
- Strike: $340 | Expiry: 2026-02-20 | IV: 35.29% | Delta: -0.400 | Theta: -0.0319 | Gamma: 0.0101 | Turnover: 49,150
- Leverage Ratio: 29.63% (moderate) | Price Change Ratio: +28.09%
- This put option stands out for its high gamma (0.0101) and reasonable IV (35.29%), making it responsive to price swings. A 5% downside move to $328.83 would yield a payoff of $11.17 per contract, offering asymmetric risk/reward.

• RACE20260220C360 (Call):
- Strike: $360 | Expiry: 2026-02-20 | IV: 33.77% | Delta: +0.3898 | Theta: -0.3409 | Gamma: 0.0105 | Turnover: 24,941
- Leverage Ratio: 36.43% (attractive) | Price Change Ratio: -27.48%
- The 360 call offers a compelling leverage ratio (36.43%) and moderate delta (0.3898), ideal for a short-term bounce trade. A 5% rebound to $363.44 would generate a $3.44 payoff, though theta decay (-0.3409) demands swift execution.

Trading Outlook: Aggressive bears should prioritize the RACE20260220P340 put for its gamma sensitivity and liquidity. For a contrarian play, the RACE20260220C360 call could capitalize on a potential rebound above $360, but time decay is a critical factor. Key support/resistance levels to monitor: 30D support at $375.23 and 200D resistance at $478.23.

Backtest Ferrari Stock Performance
The backtest of RACE's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -2% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 54.85%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.95%, and the 30-Day win rate is 55.49%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.56%, which occurred on day 58, suggesting that while there is some volatility, RACE can exhibit strong recovery in the following weeks.

Act Now: Position for a 2026-02-20 Expiry Showdown
Ferrari's leadership reshuffle has ignited a bearish cascade, with technicals and options data aligning for a continuation of the downtrend. The stock's proximity to its 52-week low and deteriorating momentum indicators suggest further weakness is likely. Investors should prioritize the RACE20260220P340 put for short-term bearish exposure, while keeping an eye on the sector leader General Motors (GM), which rose 0.0989% today. A breakdown below $344.91 would confirm a new bearish phase, making immediate action critical for capital preservation.