Ferrari's Freefall: A 4% Plunge Amid F1 Drama and Investor Anxiety

Summary
• Ferrari’s stock tumbles 4.02% to $360.25, its lowest since December 2025’s intraday low of $356.965
• F1 season fiasco, driver tensions, and 2026 regulatory uncertainty dominate headlines
• Technicals signal bearish momentum with RSI at 34.9 and MACD below zero

Ferrari’s shares face a brutal intraday selloff, driven by a confluence of on-track failures, internal discord, and looming regulatory shifts. The stock’s 4.02% drop to $360.25 reflects investor unease over the team’s 2025 performance and unresolved questions about 2026. With the 52-week low at $356.965 now within reach, the market is pricing in a high-stakes reset for the Italian automaker.

F1 Frustration and Leadership Uncertainty Fuel Sell-Off
Ferrari’s stock collapse is rooted in the team’s disastrous 2025 F1 season, which saw no grand prix wins and a fourth-place finish in the constructors’ championship. Public criticism from drivers Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton—despite team principal Fred Vasseur’s insistence on constructive feedback—has amplified investor anxiety. Leclerc’s 2026 contract uncertainty and Hamilton’s potential replacement by Max Verstappen further cloud the outlook. The stock’s bearish technicals align with deteriorating sentiment, as the 52-week low looms and the 200-day moving average at $453.56 remains a distant target.

Automotive Sector Volatility Amid GM’s Rally
While Ferrari’s shares crumble, the broader automotive sector shows mixed signals. General Motors (GM) defies the trend, surging 2.31% as its electric vehicle strategy gains traction. However, Ferrari’s struggles highlight the sector’s fragility: luxury automakers face dual pressures from regulatory shifts and brand reputation risks. Unlike GM’s tech-driven optimism, Ferrari’s identity as a racing icon is under siege, with its 2026 car development and driver lineup casting long shadows over valuation multiples.

Bearish Technicals and High-Leverage Puts Signal Aggressive Shorting Opportunities
• 200-day average: $453.56 (far above current price)
• RSI: 34.9 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -7.63 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $360.25 near lower band ($366.53)

Ferrari’s technicals scream short-term bearishness, with the 52-week low at $356.965 acting as a critical support level. The options chain offers two high-leverage puts for aggressive positioning: RACE20251219P340 and RACE20260116P350.

RACE20251219P350
• Code: RACE20251219P350
• Type: Put
• Strike Price: $350
• Expiration: 2025-12-19
• IV: 30.45% (moderate)
• LVR: 40.19% (high leverage)
• Delta: -0.354 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0509 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.0105 (modest sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 153,975 (liquid)

This contract offers a 145.48% price gain potential if Ferrari breaks below $350. A 5% downside scenario (targeting $342.24) would yield a put payoff of $7.76 per contract, translating to a 22.2% return on the $350 strike. Its high leverage and moderate delta make it ideal for a short-term bearish bet.

RACE20260116P350
• Code: RACE20260116P350
• Type: Put
• Strike Price: $350
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV: 30.45% (moderate)
• LVR: 40.19% (high leverage)
• Delta: -0.354 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0509 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.0105 (modest sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 153,975 (liquid)

This longer-dated put mirrors the December contract but offers more time for the stock to decline. A 5% downside scenario would yield a $7.76 payoff, with the added benefit of time decay working in the investor’s favor. Both contracts are liquid and well-positioned for a continuation of the current bearish trend.

Action Alert: Aggressive short-sellers should prioritize RACE20251219P350 for immediate exposure, while RACE20260116P350 suits those betting on a prolonged decline. If $350 breaks, the 52-week low at $356.965 becomes a critical psychological hurdle.

Backtest Ferrari Stock Performance
The backtest of RACE's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -4% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 55.90%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.37%, and the 30-Day win rate is 57.42%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.88% over 30 days, suggesting that while there is volatility, RACE can exhibit strong recovery and growth in the following weeks.

Ferrari at the Brink: A High-Stakes 2026 Reset
Ferrari’s 4% intraday drop underscores the fragility of its brand equity amid F1’s 2026 regulatory overhaul and driver uncertainty. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a high probability of testing the 52-week low, with the 200-day average offering no near-term support. Investors must monitor Leclerc’s contract status and the team’s 2026 car development, as these will dictate long-term valuation. In the short term, RACE20251219P350 and RACE20260116P350 offer leveraged exposure to a potential breakdown. Meanwhile, the automotive sector’s mixed performance—led by GM’s 2.31% rally—highlights the need for sector diversification. Act now: Short sellers should target the $350 level, while long-term holders should wait for a catalyst-driven rebound.