Ferrari's February 10 Catalyst: A 2025 Earnings Test for a 2030 Plan

The immediate test arrives on February 10. Ferrari's Q4 earnings report will be the first full financial check on whether the company can deliver on a promise that already looks ahead to 2030. The setup is clear: the stock trades at $379.27, with a median analyst price target of $471.26, implying a 24.3% upside. That bullish consensus rests on the company's own raised guidance, which is the real catalyst.

At its October Capital Markets Day, Ferrari did more than just outline a long-term plan. It upgraded its 2025 guidance, exceeding its 2026 profitability targets one year in advance. This was a powerful signal of confidence. The market is now pricing in that early success. The upcoming report must validate that momentum with hard numbers.

The foundation is strong. In the third quarter, Ferrari posted revenue up 7.4% and an EBIT margin of 28.4%. That performance, driven by a rich product mix and personalizations, is the engine behind the raised 2025 outlook. The February 10 release will show if that engine is still running hot through the final quarter of the year. Any stumble in revenue growth or a drop in that premium margin would challenge the thesis that 2025 is a dress rehearsal for 2030's profitability. The stock's reaction will hinge entirely on whether the company meets its own ambitious, forward-looking targets.

Key Metrics to Watch: Profitability and Cash Flow

The February 10 report must validate that Ferrari's 2025 performance is not just strong, but a true preview of its 2030 plan. The market is looking for three specific drivers to confirm the "one year early" upgrade is on track.

First, the critical test is the EBITDA margin. In the third quarter, Ferrari posted an EBITDA margin of 37.9%. The 2030 plan targets a margin of at least 40%. For the 2025 results to support the valuation, the full-year margin needs to hold or improve. This metric is a direct signal of sustained pricing power and cost control, proving the company can maintain its premium positioning even as it ramps production for new models.

Second, industrial free cash flow generation is the lifeblood of the long-term plan. Ferrari produced Euro 365 million in industrial free cash flow in Q3. The 2030 plan calls for a cumulated industrial free cash flow of Euro ~8.0 billion. The full-year 2025 figure must be robust, demonstrating the company can fund its own growth and shareholder returns without external financing. This cash flow is essential for funding the cumulated capital expenditures of Euro ~4.7 billion over the next five years.

Finally, demand strength is measured by more than just volume. Total shipments of 3,401 units in Q3 were flat year-over-year. The key is the product mix. The company's ability to deliver higher-margin models like the 12Cilindri and SF90 XX family, as well as increased personalizations, drove a richer mix. The February report must show this trend continued, as it is the primary lever for margin expansion and revenue growth toward the 2030 targets.

Valuation and Risk: The Gap Between 2025 and 2030

The market is already pricing in a long-term success story, leaving little room for error in the near term. Ferrari's stock trades at $379.27, a level that implies the 2030 plan is largely discounted. This is evident in the stock's recent performance: it has fallen 11.1% over the past year and trades 26.9% below its 52-week high. That skepticism suggests investors are waiting for near-term execution to catch up to the long-term promise.

The bullish analyst consensus, with 11 Buy and 3 Hold ratings, supports the median price target of $471.26. But this optimism is conditional. For the stock to climb toward that target, the February 10 results must be a clear beat against the company's own raised 2025 guidance. Any miss or a warning on the 2026 plan would likely trigger a sharp re-rating, as the valuation already embeds a high degree of confidence in the 2025 performance being a true preview of the 2030 trajectory.

The primary risk is that the 2025 results, while strong, simply meet expectations rather than exceed them. In a market that has already discounted the long-term plan, a "good" quarter may not be enough to drive the stock higher. The setup is now one of high expectations. The February report must validate that the early success is real and sustainable, or the stock's momentum could falter.

Catalysts and What to Watch

The immediate post-earnings period will be defined by two key events: the live webcast on February 10 and the stock's reaction to the results. The webcast, scheduled for 2:00 p.m. GMT / 3:00 p.m. CET / 9:00 a.m. EST, is the first direct source of management commentary on the 2025 performance and the initial look at the 2026 outlook. This is where investors will hear the narrative behind the numbers, assessing tone, confidence, and any forward guidance.

The most critical signal to watch will be any revision to the 2026 business plan targets or capital expenditure plans. Ferrari's October upgrade showed it was already on track to meet its 2030 goals. The February report must confirm that trajectory is intact. Management's commentary on the 2026 plan-particularly on profitability, cash flow, and the cumulated capital expenditures of Euro ~4.7 billion-will be the primary indicator of whether the long-term plan is still on course. A downward revision here would be a major red flag, while a reaffirmation or even an upgrade would support the bullish consensus.

Finally, the stock's immediate reaction relative to the 24.3% median price target upside will be the catalyst for positioning. The market has already priced in a successful 2025. For the stock to climb toward the $471.26 median target, the results and guidance must not just meet but exceed the company's own raised 2025 expectations. A beat could trigger a short-term rally, while a miss or a cautious outlook on 2026 would likely lead to a sell-off, as the valuation leaves little room for disappointment. The setup is clear: the February 10 results are the test, and the stock's move will be the verdict.