Ferrari's $360.215 Slide: A 4.03% Drop Amid F1 Turmoil and Investor Skepticism

Summary
• Ferrari (RACE) plunges 4.03% to $360.215, its lowest since intraday low of $356.965
• F1 team struggles, driver tensions, and regulatory uncertainty dominate headlines
• Options chain shows extreme volatility, with RACE20251219P340 put option surging 240%

Ferrari’s stock has plunged to a 52-week low amid a perfect storm of Formula 1 performance woes, internal team dynamics, and investor skepticism. The stock’s 4.03% drop reflects growing concerns over the brand’s ability to navigate a pivotal 2026 regulatory overhaul. With Charles Leclerc hinting at potential exit and Lewis Hamilton’s future in question, the market is pricing in a high-risk scenario for the luxury automaker.

F1 Frustrations and Leadership Uncertainty Weigh on Ferrari
Ferrari’s 4.03% intraday drop is directly tied to its Formula 1 team’s underwhelming 2025 season and leadership uncertainty. The Scuderia’s failure to secure a single Grand Prix victory, coupled with public criticism from drivers Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, has eroded investor confidence. Leclerc’s recent comments about 2026 being a 'make-or-break' year for his relationship with the team, and Hamilton’s admission of lacking a 'mindset for next year,' signal deepening cracks in the team’s foundation. Additionally, the potential departure of Hamilton—whose contract runs until 2027—has sparked speculation about a costly overhaul, further pressuring shares.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Ferrari's Volatility
• RSI: 34.90 (oversold)
• MACD: -7.63 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $360.215 (near lower band at $366.53)
• 200D MA: $453.56 (far above current price)
• Support/Resistance: 30D support at $391.37, 200D resistance at $477.81

Ferrari’s technicals paint a bearish picture, with RSI in oversold territory and price near the lower Bollinger Band. The 200-day moving average ($453.56) remains a distant target, suggesting a prolonged downtrend. For traders, the RACE20251219P340 put option (strike $340, expiring Dec 19) and RACE20260116P350 put (strike $350, expiring Jan 16) stand out. Both contracts offer high leverage and liquidity, with implied volatility in the 29%–34% range. The RACE20251219P340 has a 211.04% leverage ratio and 240% price gain, while the RACE20260116P350 offers 40.31% leverage with a -36.43% delta, ideal for a moderate bearish bet. A 5% downside scenario (targeting $342.20) would yield a 12.4% return on the RACE20251219P340, assuming a $340 strike. Aggressive bears should prioritize the RACE20251219P340 for short-term gains, while the RACE20260116P350 suits a longer-term bearish thesis.

Backtest Ferrari Stock Performance
The backtest of RACE's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -4% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 55.90%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.37%, and the 30-Day win rate is 57.42%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.88% over 30 days, suggesting that while there is volatility, RACE can exhibit strong recovery and growth in the following weeks.

Act Now: Ferrari's Crossroads Demand Strategic Precision
Ferrari’s 4.03% drop reflects a critical juncture for the brand, with F1 performance, leadership stability, and regulatory changes all converging. While the stock’s technicals suggest a continuation of the downtrend, the options market hints at a potential rebound if the team can stabilize under 2026 rules. Investors should monitor the $356.965 intraday low as a key support level and watch for catalysts like Leclerc’s contract decisions or Hamilton’s potential replacement. Meanwhile, the sector leader Amgen (AMGN) is up 0.50%, underscoring the broader market’s focus on healthcare over luxury autos. For Ferrari, the path forward hinges on resolving internal tensions and delivering a competitive F1 package—failures here could deepen the selloff. Watch for a breakdown below $356.965 or a regulatory breakthrough in 2026.