Fermi's 8.06% Plunge: A Nuclear Ambition in Turbulent Waters?

Summary
• Fermi (FRMI) plunges 8.06% to $16.88, marking its lowest intraday level since October 22
• Q3 net loss of $346.8M, driven by $309M in 'other expenses,' shocks investors
• 52-week range of $16.30–$36.99 highlights extreme volatility amid unproven AI/nuclear infrastructure bets

Fermi’s 8.06% intraday drop on November 19, 2025, underscores a market revolt against its speculative nuclear-AI grid ambitions. The stock’s collapse follows a Q3 earnings report revealing a $346.8M net loss—largely from opaque 'other expenses'—and no revenue. With a 52-week low of $16.30 now within reach, the stock’s trajectory reflects investor skepticism toward its unproven Texas-based Project Matador. The day’s $16.85–$18.76 range highlights a fragile balance between short-term bearish momentum and lingering long-term hype.

Q3 Loss and Strategic Ambiguity Trigger Sell-Off
Fermi’s 8.06% decline stems from a Q3 earnings report that exposed the company’s precarious financial position. The $346.8M net loss—far exceeding the $13.3M expected—was attributed to $309M in unspecified 'other expenses,' raising red flags about transparency. Compounding concerns, Fermi remains pre-revenue, relying on speculative nuclear and gas infrastructure projects to power AI data centers. The company’s 'Manhattan Project' analogy for its Texas grid, while ambitious, lacks tangible progress, with Project Matador’s first tenant lease delayed by 21 days. Investors, already wary of unproven tech-energy hybrids, reacted swiftly to the earnings miss and operational delays, triggering a liquidity-driven selloff.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility and Liquidity
• RSI: 20.38 (oversold)
• MACD: -2.45 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $15.84 (lower band) near critical support
• 30D Moving Average: $24.88 (current price at 67.7% discount)

Fermi’s technicals signal a short-term oversold condition, but structural bearishness persists. The stock’s 8.06% drop has pushed it toward the lower Bollinger Band ($15.84), with RSI at 20.38 suggesting potential for a rebound. However, the MACD (-2.45) and 30D MA ($24.88) indicate a broader downtrend. For traders, the key is to balance bearish momentum with volatility-driven options strategies.

Top Option 1: FRMI20251219P17.5 (Put)
• Strike Price: $17.50
• Expiration: 2025-12-19
• IV Ratio: 133.51% (elevated)
• Leverage Ratio: 7.41%
• Delta: -0.468 (moderate bearish exposure)
• Theta: -0.0198 (slow time decay)
• Gamma: 0.076 (high sensitivity to price swings)
• Turnover: 917 (liquid)
• Price Change Ratio: +2.22%
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.65 (max profit if price drops to $16.04)
This put option offers a high-gamma, high-IV play on continued bearish momentum. With a delta of -0.468, it benefits from a 5% move below $16.88 while maintaining liquidity (917 turnover).

Top Option 2: FRMI20260116P17.5 (Put)
• Strike Price: $17.50
• Expiration: 2026-01-16
• IV Ratio: 143.22% (elevated)
• Leverage Ratio: 4.19%
• Delta: -0.3997 (moderate bearish exposure)
• Theta: -0.0245 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0393 (modest sensitivity)
• Turnover: 47,432 (highly liquid)
• Price Change Ratio: +14.97%
• Payoff (5% downside): $0.65 (max profit if price drops to $16.04)
This longer-dated put offers a safer play on bearish continuation, with high turnover (47,432) and elevated IV (143.22%) amplifying potential returns. Its -0.3997 delta balances risk and reward.

Hook: Aggressive bears should prioritize FRMI20251219P17.5 for short-term volatility, while FRMI20260116P17.5 suits those betting on a prolonged selloff.

Backtest Fermi Stock Performance
It looks like I was unable to retrieve any historical price data for the ticker “FRMI.O”. Without daily OHLC (open-high-low-close) data, I can’t identify the dates on which the stock experienced an intraday draw-down of at least –8 %, so I’m unable to run the requested post-plunge performance test.Could you please confirm one of the following so we can proceed?1. Verify the ticker symbol • If Fermi trades under a different symbol (for example on another exchange), let me know the correct code.2. Provide the price data manually • If you have daily OHLC data from 2022-01-01 to today, you can upload it (CSV or JSON). I can then calculate the –8 % plunge dates and run the back-test.Once I have valid price data, I’ll detect every –8 % intraday plunge since 2022 and evaluate the subsequent performance.

Act Now: Position for a Volatile Path Forward
Fermi’s 8.06% drop signals a critical juncture for investors. While the stock’s oversold RSI (20.38) hints at a potential rebound, the MACD (-2.45) and 30D MA ($24.88) suggest a bearish bias. The key levels to watch are $15.84 (lower Bollinger Band) and $17.50 (strike price of top puts). For context, sector leader Nextera (NEE) rose 0.05%, highlighting Fermi’s divergence from utility peers. Traders should prioritize the FRMI20251219P17.5 and FRMI20260116P17.5 options to capitalize on volatility, while long-term investors should await clearer execution signals from Project Matador. Watch for a breakdown below $15.84 or a short-covering rally above $18.76.