Fermi’s $16B AI Power Play: Trump-Branded Nuclear Plant, No Revenue—Yet Investors Can’t Get Enough

Fermi America will make its public debut today, bringing to market one of the most ambitious—and politically charged—energy IPOs in years. Trading under the ticker FRMI, the company raised $682.5 million by selling 32.5 million shares at $21 each, pricing at the top of its expected $18 to $22 range. UBS, Evercore, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Mizuho led the underwriting, supported by a deep syndicate that included Macquarie, Rothschild Redburn, Stifel, Truist, Berenberg, and Panmure. Indications suggest the stock could open closer to $27, giving the company a market capitalization approaching $16 billion. For a pre-revenue entity, that valuation underscores both investor enthusiasm for AI-driven infrastructure and the risks that come with speculative bets on long-term energy projects.

At its core, Fermi America is structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT). Its business plan is unusual for the sector: rather than leasing traditional real estate, it is developing power infrastructure designed specifically to serve AI data centers. Management calls this a “power-centric leasing model,” under which tenants will sign long-term contracts tied not to square footage but to power availability. Fermi aims to deliver up to 11 gigawatts (GW) of capacity by 2038, enough to rival some of the world’s largest hydroelectric projects. Early phases will rely on natural gas plants and battery systems, with solar farms and eventually large-scale nuclear reactors adding to the mix.

The centerpiece of this buildout is “Project Matador,” a massive integrated energy and data complex on a nine-square-mile site leased for 99 years from Texas Tech University. The site’s proximity to major natural gas fields and pipelines owned by Energy Transfer and ONEOK provides critical infrastructure advantages. Fermi has already secured turbine supply agreements from Siemens Energy and GE Vernova, and says it expects to have one GW of natural gas capacity online by the end of 2026. Longer-term, it is pursuing the most ambitious nuclear buildout in the U.S. in decades. Four reactors are planned for what Fermi has branded the “Donald J. Trump Generating Plant,” with the first targeted for 2031.

The Trump connection is no accident. Co-founder and former Texas governor Rick Perry , who also served as U.S. Energy Secretary under Trump, has been central to Fermi’s vision. Perry sits on the board of Energy Transfer, one of the pipeline operators expected to support the project. His political capital, and the branding of nuclear projects under Trump’s name, link Fermi tightly to the election cycle and the broader “America First” energy agenda. Perry and his family also have a direct financial stake—his son Griffin Perry holds more than 130 million shares, or about 23 percent of the company. At the IPO price, the Perrys’ combined stake is worth hundreds of millions.

Fermi is clear about its current limitations: it has not yet generated revenue and does not expect to do so until 2027, when the first tenant agreements are set to begin. Through June 30, 2025, the company had incurred $6.4 million in net losses and burned $2.6 million in operating cash. Capital expenditures have been far larger, with $40 million invested in early construction and site work, plus another $2.6 million in preacquisition costs. Liquidity, however, has been bolstered by $246 million in convertible debt and $85 million in financing proceeds, alongside today’s IPO. Management argues that proceeds from the offering, combined with prepayments from tenants and project-level debt, will be sufficient to fund Phase I of Project Matador.

Whether investors treat Fermi as a traditional REIT remains to be seen. The company plans to elect REIT status for tax purposes, but has made clear that no dividends will be paid in the near term given the capital intensity of its projects. Instead, it hopes to lure investors with the promise of long-term cash flows from hyperscale AI tenants, whose demand for reliable, low-carbon power is expected to surge. Analysts project U.S. data centers could consume 219 GW by 2030, up from 55 GW in 2023. Against that backdrop, Fermi’s 11 GW target looks like both a drop in the bucket and a massive capital challenge.

Execution risk is significant. Nuclear development in the U.S. has been plagued by delays and cost overruns, as shown by the Vogtle reactors in Georgia. Even natural gas plants face permitting hurdles and supply chain bottlenecks. And while Fermi has entered into a non-binding letter of intent with a potential tenant, it has yet to secure definitive long-term contracts. Analysts note that this makes Fermi a “build it and they will come” bet—a play on the AI boom that requires patient capital and faith in management’s ability to deliver.

Still, investors appear willing to take the gamble. Pre-IPO demand was strong enough to allow the deal to be upsized from 25 million shares to 32.5 million. At the midpoint of Fermi’s projections, the company could generate $3.6 billion in EBITDA by 2029, implying a forward EV/EBITDA multiple in line with energy peers. For now, however, it trades more like a venture-backed startup in public market form.

Beyond the balance sheet, politics loom large. The branding of Fermi’s flagship nuclear facility under Trump’s name ensures the company will be tied to regulatory cycles and partisan debates over energy policy. Trump has pledged to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050, a policy shift that would benefit Fermi directly. On the other hand, changes in administration could mean regulatory pushback, slower approvals, or shifts in subsidy structures. Investors buying into the IPO are therefore not just betting on Fermi’s projects, but on the broader trajectory of U.S. energy politics.

In the near term, the stock’s opening pop will reflect both enthusiasm for AI infrastructure and broader equity market sentiment. With U.S. government shutdown headlines and tariff battles continuing to unsettle markets, risk appetite remains fragile. Yet Fermi’s debut demonstrates that investor demand for AI-linked plays remains fierce—even if those plays are years from producing cash.

Fermi’s IPO is thus both a milestone and a test case. If the company can steadily execute on Project Matador and secure blue-chip tenants, it may eventually transform from a speculative story into a cash-generating REIT. For now, it is a high-profile wager on the intersection of AI, energy, and politics—an ambitious bet that the power fueling America’s next computing revolution will be built in the Texas panhandle, under the shadow of Rick Perry and Donald Trump’s energy legacy.