FedEx Plunges 3.32% as Institutional Selling and Tariff Uncertainty Shake Investor Confidence—What’s Next for the Logistics Giant?

Summary
• FedEx (FDX) tumbles to $234.3545, down 3.32% from its previous close of $242.41
• Intraday range hits $234.28 (low) to $241.65 (high), signaling heightened volatility
• Institutional investors and insiders sold 9,343 shares in the last 90 days, valued at $2.23M
• Analysts remain bullish with a $283.25 consensus price target, but sector peers like UPS (-10.5%) amplify industry-wide jitters

Today’s sharp decline in FedEx shares reflects a perfect storm of institutional selling, tariff-related uncertainty, and sector-wide fragility. As the logistics giant navigates post-earnings optimism and macroeconomic headwinds, investors are left deciphering whether this drop is a buying opportunity or a warning signal.

Institutional and Insider Selling Fuel a Liquidity Crisis
FedEx’s 3.32% intraday slide is directly tied to a wave of institutional and insider selling. Mawer Investment Management Ltd. reduced its stake by 3.7%, while directors R Brad Martin and Marvin Ellison cut their holdings by 19.2% and 31.86%, respectively. These sales, totaling $2.23M in the last 90 days, signal a lack of conviction among long-term holders. Compounding this, the broader sector is under pressure as shippers delay airfreight schedules amid U.S. tariff deadlines. FedEx’s 52-week low of $194.295 and 52-week high of $308.53 highlight a volatile trading range, with the stock currently testing its 200-day moving average of $250.72.

Logistics Sector in Freefall as UPS Plunges 10.5%
The logistics sector is experiencing a synchronized collapse, with industry leader United Parcel Service (UPS) falling 10.5% on concerns about U.S.-China tariff uncertainty and shifting supply chains. FedEx’s 3.32% drop, while severe, is less extreme than UPS’s plunge, which reflects broader market fears of margin compression. However, FedEx’s recent earnings beat—reporting $6.07 EPS versus $5.98 estimates—suggests its operational discipline may offer some near-term resilience compared to peers.

Options and ETF Strategies for Navigating Volatility
• 200-day MA: $250.72 (above) • RSI: 54.81 (neutral) • MACD: 2.93 (bullish divergence) • Bollinger Bands: 245.38 (upper), 234.65 (mid), 223.92 (lower)
• FDX is trading below its 200-day MA but shows short-term bullish momentum, with MACD and RSI suggesting potential for a rebound. The 52-week range ($194.295–$308.53) remains a critical battleground, with key support at $223.92 (lower Bollinger Band) and resistance at $245.38 (upper Bollinger Band).

Top Options Contracts:
1. FDX20250808P227.5 (Put Option) • Strike: $227.5 • Expiry: 2025-08-08 • IV: 25.92% • LVR: 155.31% • Delta: -0.238 • Theta: -0.0368 • Gamma: 0.0293 • Turnover: 7,933 •
• IV (Implied Volatility): Indicates moderate uncertainty • LVR (Leverage Ratio): High potential for downside gains • Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price moves • Gamma: Strong responsiveness to price changes •
• This put option offers a 155.31% leverage ratio with moderate delta (-0.238), making it ideal for capitalizing on a potential 5% decline to $222.64. Projected payoff: $5.86 per share.

2. FDX20250808P230 (Put Option) • Strike: $230 • Expiry: 2025-08-08 • IV: 24.45% • LVR: 115.53% • Delta: -0.310 • Theta: -0.014 • Gamma: 0.0354 • Turnover: 10,895 •
• IV: Moderate volatility • LVR: High downside exposure • Delta: Strong sensitivity to price drops • Gamma: High responsiveness •
• This put provides 115.53% leverage with a delta of -0.310, aligning well with the stock’s current trajectory. Projected payoff: $10.00 per share if FDX hits $222.64.

Aggressive short-sellers may consider FDX20250808P230 as a hedge against further declines, while FDX20250808P227.5 offers a more aggressive play on a 5% bearish scenario.

Backtest Fedex Stock Performance
After a -3% intraday plunge, FedEx (FDX) has historically shown a positive short-to-medium-term performance. The backtest data reveals favorable win rates and returns for 3, 10, and 30 days following the event:1. 3-Day Performance: The win rate is 52.41%, with an average return of 0.30% within 3 days. The maximum return during this period is 1.68%, achieved on day 48.2. 10-Day Performance: The win rate increases to 52.58%, with an average return of 0.55%. The maximum return is 1.77%, recorded on day 54.3. 30-Day Performance: The win rate rises to 56.41%, with an average return of 1.30%. The maximum return is 2.22%, achieved on day 60.These results suggest that FDX tends to recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels in the following weeks, making it a potentially attractive entry point for investors considering a short-to-medium-term horizon.

Rebound Potential or Prolonged Downtrend? Watch These Signals
FedEx’s 3.32% drop reflects a mix of institutional skepticism and sector-wide fragility, but its technicals suggest a potential rebound from the $223.92 support level. With a 54.81 RSI and bullish MACD divergence, the stock may test $245.38 resistance in the near term. However, sector leader UPS’s 10.5% plunge underscores the risks of a broader logistics selloff. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA ($250.72) and key options contracts like FDX20250808P230 for directional clues. If $223.92 breaks, the path to $194.295 becomes a real threat. For now, a wait-and-see approach is prudent, but the $230–$240 range could offer strategic entry points for long-term bulls.