Fedex Jumps 3.10% To $234.36 As Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

Candlestick Theory
Fedex (FDX) exhibited a strong 3.10% bullish candle on July 1, 2025, closing at $234.36 after testing the $226.20–$237.30 range. This follows a hammer pattern on June 27 (low: $222.19, close: $228.91), signaling rejection of lower prices. Immediate resistance is observed near $237.30, aligning with the April 3 swing high. Support rests at $226.20 (June 25 low), with a critical floor at $216.16 (May 2025 trough). The recent bounce from $216.16 suggests this zone as a major defense against bearish momentum.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (currently ~$230) recently crossed above the 100-day MA (~$227), indicating strengthening intermediate momentum. However, the 200-day MA (~$250) remains a descending resistance ceiling. Price action now oscillates between the converging 50/100-day MAs, reflecting near-term consolidation. A sustained hold above $230 could propel a retest of the 200-day MA, while failure risks reopening the $216–$220 support band.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram turned positive in late June, with the signal line crossing above zero—a bullish momentum confirmation. KDJ shows the %K line (83) above the %D line (77), hinting at upward momentum but approaching overbought territory. Divergence emerged in mid-June when price made a lower low while KDJ printed a higher low, foreshadowing the recent rebound. However, MACD’s short-term cycle suggests a pullback could materialize if momentum fades.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply during June’s consolidation, reflecting diminished volatility. The July 1 close near the upper band ($236) signals near-term overextension, increasing reversal probability. A decisive break above $237.30 would imply breakout validation, while rejection could retrace toward the middle band ($228). Bandwidth narrowing historically preceded volatile moves, warranting vigilance.
Volume-Price Relationship
The June 25 sell-off hit $216.16 on elevated volume (8.1M shares), indicating capitulation. Subsequent rebounds occurred on moderate volume (2.3–4.0M), lacking strong conviction. The July 1 rally recorded only 2.3M shares, slightly below the 10-day average. This divergence suggests caution—demand must expand to sustain upside. Volume-supported reversals at $216 and $226 hint at accumulation zones.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (60) resides in neutral territory but climbed from oversold (37.5 on June 25). While not overbought, its approach toward 65 aligns with the Bollinger Band upper limit, implying constrained near-term upside. The RSI’s higher low during June’s retest of $216 confirmed positive momentum divergence. Overbought thresholds (>70) remain distant, limiting immediate reversal risk.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels between the March 24 peak ($304) and June 25 trough ($216), the 38.2% retracement ($250) capped recovery attempts in May. The 23.6% level ($233) now acts as resistance—reinforced by the July 1 high near $237. Confluence exists at $226 (June 25 swing low), which aligns with the 38.2% support. A break above $237 could target the 50% retracement ($260), while failure risks revisiting $216.
Confluence and Divergence
Multiple indicators converge at $226–$230: the hammer candle low, 100-day MA, and 38.2% Fib level establish this as critical support. Upside hinges on clearing $237 (Bollinger/resistance) with volume confirmation—currently absent. Key divergence exists in volume’s failure to match the July 1 price surge, weakening breakout validity. MACD/KDJ agreement on emerging momentum offers counterbalance, though overextension signals advise tactical prudence. Probabilistically, $230 acts as a pivot: hold above suggests $250 retest; breakdown revives bearish targets near $216.