FedEx (FDX) Plummets 2.95% Amid Tariff Turmoil and E-commerce Woes—What’s Next for the Logistics Giant?

Summary
• FedEx (FDX) tumbles 2.95% to $216.9, marking its worst intraday decline since the 52-week low of $194.30
• Cramer’s bullish CEO commentary clashes with Trump’s tariff-driven trade crackdown, sparking sector-wide jitters
• Options frenzy on put contracts as traders bet on further downside, with $210 strikes attracting 801 contracts

FedEx’s sharp selloff reflects a perfect storm of geopolitical tailwinds and sector-specific headwinds. With Trump’s de minimis tariff elimination and ongoing trade tensions amplifying costs, the logistics giant faces a crossroads. Intraday volatility—swinging from $221.84 to $216.14—underscores the market’s uncertainty as investors weigh near-term risks against long-term operational adjustments.

Tariff Turmoil and E-commerce Woes Drive FDX's Sharp Decline
FedEx’s 2.95% drop stems from a confluence of regulatory shifts and sector-specific vulnerabilities. The Trump administration’s decision to eliminate de minimis exemptions for e-commerce imports has directly impacted FedEx’s cross-border parcel business, a critical revenue driver. Compounding this, recent trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe, highlighted in sector news, have exacerbated logistical bottlenecks and margin pressures. Meanwhile, Cramer’s recent bullish remarks on CEO Raj Subramaniam, while positive for sentiment, contrast sharply with the immediate operational headwinds from tariff-related cost inflation. The stock’s intraday range—from a high of $221.84 to a low of $216.14—reflects the market’s struggle to price in these conflicting narratives.

Integrated Freight & Logistics Sector Under Pressure as UPS Also Slides
The Integrated Freight & Logistics sector is broadly under pressure, with United Parcel Service (UPS) down 1.75% and C.H. Robinson (CHRW) falling 1.05%. This synchronized decline underscores the sector’s exposure to global trade policies and e-commerce margin compression. While FedEx’s 2.95% drop is steeper, the broader industry context suggests that regulatory shifts—particularly Trump’s tariff agenda—remain the primary catalyst. Investors are now scrutinizing whether companies can offset these costs through pricing power or operational efficiency, with FedEx’s recent earnings report and cost-cutting measures serving as key differentiators.

Bearish Options Play and ETF Positioning for FDX’s Near-Term Volatility
• MACD: 0.62 (bearish divergence), RSI: 37.5 (oversold), 200D MA: $250.18 (well above price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $216.9, near the lower band of $221.60, suggesting potential for a bounce or continuation

The technical setup indicates a short-term bearish bias with oversold conditions, though the 200-day average remains a formidable hurdle. For options, two contracts stand out:

• FDX20250808P210 (Put, $210 strike, 8/8 expiry):
- IV: 31.30% (moderate), Leverage: 160.82%, Delta: -0.227, Theta: -0.069, Gamma: 0.0299, Turnover: $104,980
- Payoff at 5% downside (206.06): $5.94
- This put offers leveraged exposure to a potential 106.25% price drop, with strong liquidity and gamma sensitivity to further downside.

• FDX20250808P212.5 (Put, $212.5 strike, 8/8 expiry):
- IV: 29.74% (attractive), Leverage: 115.48%, Delta: -0.302, Theta: -0.0478, Gamma: 0.0365, Turnover: $5,921
- Payoff at 5% downside (206.06): $6.44
- A mid-strike put with balanced delta and gamma, ideal for a 229.82% price drop scenario, supported by decent implied volatility.

Trading View: Aggressive bears should prioritize FDX20250808P210 for a 5% downside target. A breakdown below $216.14 (intraday low) could trigger a test of the $210 psychological level, with the put offering asymmetric reward. For a more conservative approach, FDX20250808P212.5 provides a tighter risk-reward profile.

Backtest Fedex Stock Performance
After a -3% intraday plunge, FedEx (FDX) has historically shown a positive short-to-medium-term performance. The backtest data reveals that the 3-day win rate is 52.15%, the 10-day win rate is 52.32%, and the 30-day win rate is 56.13%. This indicates that FedEx tends to rebound in the following days after such a significant intraday decline. The maximum return observed was 1.68% over 30 days, suggesting that while the rebound may not be immediate, it can be worthwhile to hold FedEx for a modest positive return.

FDX at Crossroads—Watch for $210 Breakdown to Confirm Bearish Thesis
FedEx’s near-term trajectory hinges on its ability to navigate Trump’s tariff-driven trade environment and offset margin pressures. With technical indicators pointing to oversold conditions and options data showing bearish positioning, a test of the $210 level in the coming days could validate the selloff. Investors should monitor UPS (down 1.75%) as a sector proxy and watch for any catalysts that might reignite Cramer-style bullish sentiment. For now, the FDX20250808P210 put offers a compelling leveraged bet on a potential 106.25% downside move. Act now—if $216.14 breaks, the 8/8 expiry puts gain urgency as expiration approaches.