The Fed’s Blackout is Over: Market Awaits a Parade of Fed Speakers Tomorrow

As the Federal Reserve exits its communications blackout following its last policy meeting, market participants are bracing for a full slate of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) speeches this week. With the next Fed decision scheduled for December 18, the upcoming commentary from Fed officials could provide key insights into their thinking on the path of interest rates.

Currently, market consensus has priced in an 85 percent chance of a rate cut at the December meeting. However, expectations beyond this immediate decision remain murky, leaving significant room for speculation. Tuesday’s lineup of Fed speakers will be closely scrutinized for any hints about the central bank’s next steps, particularly in the wake of recent economic data and upcoming reports, including Wednesday’s critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

Tuesday’s Schedule of FOMC Speakers

The day begins with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller at 10:00 AM ET. Waller, a voting member of the FOMC, is expected to deliver remarks on payments, a topic tied closely to the Fed’s ongoing considerations around financial stability and digital finance. While the subject may not directly address monetary policy, any mention of broader economic conditions could influence market sentiment.

Shortly thereafter, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at 10:15 AM ET. As a non-voting member, Barkin’s comments may not carry immediate weight, but his perspective often sheds light on regional economic trends and how they factor into the Fed's broader outlook. Barkin will make a second appearance later in the day at 5:30 PM ET.

In the afternoon, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak at 2:00 PM ET. Known for his candid and sometimes dovish views, Kashkari’s remarks could provide additional context on the Fed's balance between taming inflation and avoiding a sharp economic slowdown.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will round out the day with a speech at 5:00 PM ET. Like Kashkari, Harker is not a voting member this year, but his views on labor market dynamics and inflation will be of interest as policymakers assess the state of the economy heading into 2024.

Key Themes to Watch

The market will be listening closely for any signs of how committed the Fed is to further easing. While Chair Jerome Powell recently suggested a desire to approach a 4.00 percent rate target before reassessing policy, he also emphasized the need for data-dependent decision-making.

This week’s speeches may indicate whether the Fed is leaning toward additional rate cuts in 2024 or planning a pause to assess the cumulative impact of its monetary policy measures. With inflation trending lower but still above target, and the labor market showing signs of moderation, the central bank is walking a fine line between achieving its dual mandate and avoiding over-tightening.

Looking Ahead

Beyond Tuesday’s slate, the week features additional high-profile events that could shape the Fed’s messaging. On Thursday, Chair Powell and New York Fed President John Williams are scheduled to speak, offering a more definitive gauge of the FOMC’s collective sentiment. Friday’s retail sales report will also provide fresh data points for the Fed to consider as it balances growth and inflation dynamics.

For now, the market’s focus remains on deciphering whether the Fed’s December rate cut will be the last for this cycle or merely a step toward further easing. The upcoming speeches and economic data will play a critical role in clarifying that trajectory.