Can the Fed Rate Cut in September 2025 Propel Solana (SOL) to $240?

The Federal Reserve’s September 2025 rate decision looms as a pivotal moment for global markets, with implications that extend far beyond traditional equities. For cryptocurrencies like Solana (SOL), the interplay of macroeconomic tailwinds and on-chain fundamentals could determine whether the altcoin breaks through its $240 price target.

Macro Tailwinds: A Fed Pivot and Risk-On Sentiment

Financial markets are pricing in an 82% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2025, driven by softening labor market data and cautious signals from Fed officials like Christopher Waller [1]. While analysts like Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett argue the case for a cut is “modest” due to resilient GDP growth (5.2% year-over-year) and inflation hovering at 3.1% for core CPI [2], the mere expectation of easing has already fueled risk-on sentiment. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and Solana, historically boosting demand for crypto during Fed dovish pivots [3].

Solana’s Technicals: A Golden Cross and Ascending Momentum

Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $205, with technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.63 indicates balanced momentum, while the MACD remains above its signal line, signaling sustained buying pressure [4]. A golden cross—a bullish pattern where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average—has emerged, reinforcing the case for a rally. Analysts project a key resistance level at $215–$220; a confirmed close above this range could trigger a surge toward $240–$260 [5].

Backtest the performance of buying SOL with a MACD Golden Cross, holding for 30 trading days, from 2022 to now.

However, caution is warranted. Over 90% of Solana’s supply is in profit, a historical precursor to corrections of 8–23% [6]. Exchange balances have also surged to 32 million SOL, a level last seen before August’s sell-off, suggesting traders may be preparing to lock in gains [7].

On-Chain Metrics: DeFi Growth and Institutional Adoption

Solana’s on-chain metrics paint a mixed but largely bullish picture. The network’s Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi has reached $11.7 billion, with Kamino leading at $2.1 billion [8]. High Annual Percentage Rates (APRs) in stablecoin pools—up to 14%—attract liquidity, outpacing Ethereum’s 3.0% [9]. Transaction volume has also surged, with 65 million daily transactions and 24-hour DEX volume hitting $4.6 billion [10].

Institutional interest is another tailwind. The launch of the Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF in June 2025 and upgrades like Alpenglow (which reduced finality latency to 100–150 milliseconds) signal growing confidence in Solana’s infrastructure [11]. Real-world asset (RWA) value on the network grew by 23.9% quarter-over-quarter to $390.6 million, further diversifying use cases [12].

The Fed’s Dilemma and Solana’s Path to $240

The Fed’s September decision will hinge on balancing a “fragile” labor market against inflation risks [13]. If the rate cut materializes, Solana’s technical and on-chain alignment could amplify its rally. A breakout above $215 would likely trigger Fibonacci extensions targeting $300, with $240 as an intermediate milestone [14]. However, repeated rejections at $210–$215 or a breakdown below $180 would invalidate the bullish case [15].

For investors, the key is hedging against volatility. While macroeconomic tailwinds and institutional adoption support a $240 target, overbought conditions and speculative inflows into memecoins pose risks [16]. A diversified approach—leveraging both technical triggers and macroeconomic signals—may be the most prudent path.

Conclusion

The Fed’s September rate cut, if executed, could catalyze a surge in risk assets, with Solana positioned to benefit from its technical strength and on-chain growth. However, the journey to $240 is not without hurdles. Investors must remain vigilant to shifting market dynamics and the Fed’s data-dependent approach.

Source:
[1] Markets are sure the Fed will cut in September, but the path from there is much murkier [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/25/markets-are-sure-the-fed-will-cut-in-september-but-the-path-from-there-is-much-murkier.html]
[2] Fed Rate Cut? Not So Fast [https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/fed-rate-cut-september-2025-forecast]
[3] Fed Rate Cut Expectations: A Double-Edged Sword for Crypto Markets [https://www.ainvest.com/news/fed-rate-cut-expectations-double-edged-sword-crypto-markets-2508/]
[4] Solana price prediction 2025-2031: Trends and insights for investors [https://coinstats.app/news/6c825cb6261760b70d324c630facdb8fb3b5220c3b63b9a2dd9f24cd28573816_Solana-price-prediction-20252031-Trends-and-insights-for-investors]
[5] SOL Price Prediction: Targeting $215-220 by September 2025 [https://blockchain.news/news/20250831-price-prediction-sol-targeting-215-220-by-september-2025]
[6] Solana Price Alert: September May Lead to a Severe Decline [https://intellectia.ai/news/crypto/solana-price-warning-september-could-trigger-a-brutal-crash]
[7] Solana Price Warning: September Could Trigger a Brutal Crash [https://coindoo.com/solana-price-warning-september-could-trigger-a-brutal-crash/]
[8] Solana DeFi's $11.7B TVL: Sustained Growth or Empty Hype [https://www.ainvest.com/news/solana-defi-11-7b-tvl-sustained-growth-empty-hype-2508/]
[9] Solana DeFi's $11.7B TVL: Sustained Growth or Empty Hype [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604939950]
[10] Solana DeFi TVL nears all-time high at $11.7B but daily fees remain stuck under $2 million [https://cryptoslate.com/solana-tvl-nears-all-time-high-at-11-7b-but-daily-fees-remain-stuck-under-2-million/]
[11] State of Solana Q2 2025 [https://messari.io/report/state-of-solana-q2-2025]
[12] State of Solana Q2 2025 [https://messari.io/report/state-of-solana-q2-2025]
[13] The Fed's September dilemma [https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/feds-september-dilemma]
[14] Solana's Path to $300: Historical Patterns, Technical Indicators, and Institutional Tailwinds [https://www.ainvest.com/news/solana-path-300-historical-patterns-technical-indicators-institutional-tailwinds-2508/]
[15] Solana SOL Coin Price Prediction 2025 2030 [https://simpleswap.io/blog/solana-price-prediction]
[16] Solana DeFi's $11.7B TVL: Sustained Growth or Empty Hype [https://www.ainvest.com/news/solana-defi-11-7b-tvl-sustained-growth-empty-hype-2508/]