Fed Rate Cut Expectations Lowered Amid Oil Price Surge

Thursday, Mar 12, 2026 3:38 pm ET1min read

Traders are no longer fully pricing in a 25-bp Fed rate cut this year due to climbing oil prices fueling inflation fears. Interest rate swaps coinciding with Federal Reserve policy meeting dates are pricing in a lower probability of a rate cut, suggesting traders are now expecting a more neutral policy stance from the Fed.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Lowered Amid Oil Price Surge

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