Fed Holds Rates Steady, Powell Cautious on Future Cuts
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%, following its first meeting under President Donald Trump's second term. The decision was widely expected and aligns with the Fed's recent hawkish stance, signaling a pause in rate cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank is comfortable with the current interest rate stance and will proceed cautiously with any future rate cuts. The Fed is waiting for data confirmation on the resumption of inflation declines before considering policy easing again.
Market expectations for monetary easing remain active, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 46.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in June and a 43.5% chance in July. However, traders estimate the probability of a rate cut before June at around 40%, down from the previous estimate of close to 50%. Interest rate futures contracts suggest that June is the most likely month for a rate cut, with a higher probability of a second 25 basis point rate cut before the end of the year.
Powell's press conference followed the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, with the Fed Chair avoiding commitments on future cuts while removing prior language on inflation progress from its statement. Bitcoin declined 1% following the Fed's announcement but remained above $100,000, trading just below $102,000. The digital asset had briefly dipped below $100,000 earlier in the week after China's DeepSeek AI launch erased $1 trillion in global market value.
The Fed's hawkish stance has stalled anticipated rate cuts and sparked renewed inflation concerns. Federal Reserve officials believe that progress in lowering inflation will resume this year, but they have now paused rate cuts and are waiting for data confirmation. Officials want to see if inflation continues to decline to the Fed's target level in the coming months before easing monetary policy again, while also expressing uncertainty about the impact of Trump's plans on price pressures, the labor market, and economic growth.
Investors are focusing on Fed interest rate expectations for March 19, 2025, with a 71