Fed Expected to Hold Rates in July Amid Trump Pressure 93% Chance of No Cut

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate policy in July, with a 93% chance that no rate cut will be implemented. This decision comes amidst growing pressure from President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower interest rates. Trump's demands for immediate and steep rate cuts have been met with resistance from the Fed, which has maintained its stance on holding firm.

The Fed's decision to freeze rates is likely influenced by several factors, including the current state of the economy and the potential impact of rate cuts on inflation and economic growth. The last rate cut occurred during President Biden’s term, when the central bank lowered rates on December 18, 2024, bringing the federal funds rate (FFR) to its current range of 4.25%–4.50%. Since then, the Fed has stayed on pause, even as other central banks around the world have eased. This contrast hasn’t gone unnoticed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who’s growing increasingly frustrated with the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell.

Trump's persistent calls for rate cuts have added a layer of complexity to the Fed's decision-making process. The President's public criticism of the Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell, has been a recurring theme in recent months. Trump has accused Powell of being a "fool" for not lowering interest rates, a stance that has been met with criticism from economists and financial experts who argue that rate cuts should be based on economic data rather than political pressure.

The Fed's decision to hold firm on interest rates in July is a clear indication of its commitment to maintaining a stable economic environment. By resisting political pressure and focusing on economic data, the Fed aims to ensure that its monetary policy decisions are based on sound economic principles rather than short-term political gains. This approach is likely to continue in the coming months, as the Fed navigates the complexities of the current economic landscape and the potential impact of rate cuts on inflation and economic growth.

As of July 10, 2025, the odds of a quarter-point rate cut sit at a slim 6.7%, with a hefty 93.3% of market participants expecting no move at all. Similar sentiment is echoed on prediction markets, where a bet prices in just a 5% chance of a cut. A commanding 95% of traders are sticking to the view that rates will stay put. Meanwhile, the probability that the Fed holds steady sits at roughly 94%. However, the picture for the September FOMC meeting is different, with 63.9% anticipating a quarter-point trim, and 4.4% thinking a half-point move is possible. Roughly 31.7% still believe the Fed won’t make any adjustments come September. These bets could shift drastically in the next two weeks leading up to the July 30 FOMC meeting, which will likely reset the board for September’s odds. The market—and the Trump administration—will be paying close attention, as these Fed moves could end up steering how equities, crypto, and precious metals behave in the weeks ahead.