Fed's Dovish Pivot Sparks XRP Surge as Capital Seeks Risk Assets

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2025 has intensified bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market, with Ripple’s XRP emerging as a focal point for speculative gains. As of September 18, XRP traded at $3.05, up 2.1% in the past 24 hours, according to Kraken data. Analysts attribute this surge to the Fed’s dovish pivot, which has weakened the U.S. dollar and redirected capital into risk assets. The REX-Osprey XRP ETF, expected to debut this week, is seen as a catalyst for institutional adoption, with CoinCodex forecasting a rise to $3.31 by October and $3.51 by December 2025Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Prediction After Fed Rate …^[1].

Technical indicators reinforce this optimism. XRP has broken above near-term resistance at $3.05, with a record $220 billion open interest in derivatives amplifying volatility risksBitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Prediction After Fed Rate …^[1]. On-chain metrics, including a 62.8% surge in 24-hour trading volume to $7.39 billion, suggest strong short-term momentumBitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Prediction After Fed Rate …^[1]. Analyst Justin Wu highlighted XRP’s alignment with Fed easing, noting the token could “bounce back to $3.25, $3.50, and even surpass its all-time high” if the central bank delivers a 50-basis-point cutXRP Price Prediction for Sept 17: Here Is Why Fed Cuts Could …^[2].

Institutional demand further supports the bullish case. Public companies have added $25 billion to crypto treasuries in Q3, with a significant portion allocated to XRPBitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Prediction After Fed Rate …^[1]. The token’s market cap, currently third-largest, has grown by over 415% in the past year. However, derivatives exposure remains a double-edged sword; sharp funding rate spikes could trigger abrupt price correctionsBitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Prediction After Fed Rate …^[1].

Long-term projections are more ambitious. Austin Hilton, a crypto analyst, predicts XRP could reach “a minimum of $10 by the end of Q4 2025,” assuming it piggybacks on Bitcoin’s potential ascent to $150,000–$200,000. This scenario hinges on the Fed’s October and December meetings, where additional rate cuts could sustain liquidity inflows. “The expectation is a major bull run in October, November, and December,” Hilton stated, emphasizing the fourth quarter as the “heart of the cycle”.

Market participants remain cautious, however. The Fear & Greed Index at 57 (Greed) and a 56.22 RSI level for crypto assets suggest overbought conditionsBitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Price Prediction After Fed Rate …^[1]. A 50-basis-point rate cut could trigger a rapid dollar depreciation, boosting XRP’s appeal but also increasing volatility. Polymarket traders assigned 91% odds to a 25-basis-point cut, with 7% to a 50-basis-point move.

The broader macroeconomic context adds complexity. The Fed’s rate cut follows a labor market slowdown, with unemployment rising to 4.3% in August and job growth decelerating. While this has spurred inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—$642 million in the past week—the altcoin season remains fragile. XRP’s ability to maintain momentum will depend on regulatory clarity, ETF performance, and the Fed’s forward guidance.