FDX Shares Tumble After FedEx Suspends Full-Year Outlook

FedEx shares fell after the shipping giant suspended its full-year outlook and issued light guidance for Q1, citing uncertainty over US trade policies. The stock looks set to break down from an ascending triangle, potentially signaling a continuation of its longer-term downtrend. Investors should monitor key support levels around $214 and $194, and resistance levels near $233 and $254.

FedEx Corp. (FDX) shares fell sharply after the company suspended its full-year outlook and issued light guidance for the first quarter (Q1) of fiscal 2026, citing uncertainty over U.S. trade policies. The stock appears poised to break down from an ascending triangle, potentially signaling a continuation of its longer-term downtrend. Investors should monitor key support levels around $214 and $194, and resistance levels near $233 and $254.

The shipping giant reported strong Q1 2025 results, with $22.2 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.07, surpassing Wall Street expectations. However, the company's cautious guidance for Q1 2026, with EPS guidance of $3.40 to $4.00, raised concerns about future growth and investor confidence [2]. This guidance was below the consensus EPS estimate of $4.150, triggering a sharp pullback in the stock price.

FedEx's management withheld full-year EPS guidance for fiscal 2026, raising concerns about future growth and investor confidence. The company's cautious tone about the year ahead, combined with no clear earnings outlook, triggered a sharp pullback in the stock price. The absence of a firm forecast suggests that macroeconomic headwinds and softening global trade demand may persist well into FY26.

Despite strong execution of its DRIVE cost-cutting program and returning over $4.3 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends, growth concerns remain front and center. FedEx's valuation has increasingly been perceived as defensive, trading at just 11x forward earnings, with limited near-term growth catalysts.

Technically, the FDX share price opened Tuesday with a bullish gap at $232.10, attempting to reclaim recent highs. However, the rally quickly stalled at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance. After closing the regular session at $229.21, FedEx stock plunged more than $14 to $215.55 post-earnings, putting the price back above the key $213–$214 support zone but poised to open below the 50-day SMA, suggesting near-term downside risks.

If support fails to hold, the stock may revisit its April low of $194.50, especially if growth signals remain weak through Q3. Investors should closely monitor FedEx's ability to navigate trade policy changes and adapt to a volatile global demand environment.

References:
[1] https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250624377/fedex-hopes-to-save-1-billion-this-fiscal-year-but-its-profit-forecast-is-still-sinking-shares-as-tariffs-weigh-on-shipments
[2] https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/06/25/fedex-earnings-win-guidance-loss-fdx-stock-tanks-15-200-next-target/
[3] https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/fedex-nysefdx-issues-q1-2026-earnings-guidance-2025-06-24/