FDUSDUSDT Market Overview: A Volatile Session with a Bullish Finish

• FDUSDUSDT traded in a narrow range with a bearish bias through overnight hours before reversing higher in early morning trade.
• Volatility increased significantly in the 02:45–05:00 ET window, with a dramatic low of 0.9642 followed by a rebound.
• A key 0.9973 support level held firm through most of the session, with a final close above 0.9977 indicating bullish momentum.
• Volume surged during the 02:45–05:00 ET period, with turnover spiking in line with the price rebound from oversold RSI levels.
• A potential bullish continuation pattern formed after 04:00 ET as prices reversed from the 0.9966 intraday low with strong volume confirmation.

First Digital USD/Tether (FDUSDUSDT) opened at 0.9974 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET and traded between 0.9642 and 0.9981 before closing at 0.9977 at 2025-09-24 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 1.35 billion, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.34 billion, reflecting heightened activity during the early morning rebound.

Over the past 24 hours, FDUSDUSDT exhibited a distinct two-phase price action. The first half of the session saw a quiet and range-bound profile, with a bearish drift maintaining price below the key 0.9975 resistance level. A doji formed at 02:15 ET near 0.9968, signaling indecision. Shortly after, at 02:45 ET, a sharp selloff brought the price down to an intraday low of 0.9642, a move that could indicate a short-term exhaustion of bearish pressure. This was followed by a strong reversal, with prices rebounding over 0.0335 in just 1.5 hours.

The structure of the move from 0.9642 to 0.9977 formed a classic bullish continuation pattern, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9892 acting as a key dynamic support that held firm. During this reversal, volume surged to over 143 million, confirming the strength of the bounce. The price then consolidated above the 0.9973 support, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming at 04:00–04:15 ET, further reinforcing the likelihood of a short-term bullish trend.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a clear shift as the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA during the morning rebound, forming a golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA acted as dynamic support during the overnight low, suggesting a potential alignment between short-term and medium-term bullish momentum. The 200-period MA remained in a bearish alignment for the broader trend, but it did not constrain the recent short-term move.

MACD crossed into positive territory at 04:15 ET and remained above the signal line, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI bottomed at 18 during the 02:45 ET low and surged into overbought territory by 06:00 ET, indicating a rapid shift from oversold to overbought conditions. Bollinger Bands showed a notable contraction before 02:45 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke back into the upper band, signaling a breakout. Price remained within the bands for the majority of the session, though it touched the upper band multiple times during the morning consolidation phase.

Volume and turnover moved in tandem during the critical 02:45–05:00 ET period, confirming the price rebound. However, after 07:00 ET, volume began to normalize despite continued price consolidation, suggesting a potential pause in the short-term bullish momentum. Notably, volume remained above average during key support tests, particularly at 0.9973 and 0.9975.

The 0.9973 and 0.9975 levels appear to be critical psychological and technical thresholds. A sustained close above 0.9975 could trigger a retest of the 0.9981 high, while a break below 0.9973 would likely trigger a reevaluation of the bullish thesis. The 0.9973 support also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the overnight move, adding further significance to the level.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy is centered around identifying breakouts after a period of consolidation, particularly when the RSI dips into oversold territory and is confirmed by a surge in volume. This aligns with the observed move from 0.9642 to 0.9977, where the RSI bottomed at 18 and volume surged to over 143 million. A potential trade setup could involve entering a long position after a close above 0.9975, with a stop below 0.9973 and a target at the 0.9981 high. The golden cross on the 15-minute chart further validates this entry condition. If this pattern is repeated across historical data, it could serve as a repeatable breakout strategy for short-term traders. The next 24 hours will test whether the breakout holds or if a pullback develops, offering a natural testing point for the strategy.