FCX Surges on Tariff Hopes But Ranks 206th in $530M Trading Volume

On August 12, 2025, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) rose 1.66% with a trading volume of $0.53 billion, ranking 206th in market activity. The stock’s move reflects renewed investor focus on its positioning in North American copper markets amid geopolitical developments.

Recent analyst activity highlights strategic advantages for FCX. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight, emphasizing potential pricing power under proposed 50% copper tariffs on semi-finished imports. These tariffs, if implemented, could shield two-thirds of FCX’s North American copper rod sales from foreign competition. Analysts also note that 40% price increases in 2026 contracts could materialize, supported by U.S. demand dynamics and reduced global supply risks.

Technical indicators suggest a short-term rebound, with the stock trading above its 200-day average and near the lower bound of Bollinger Bands. Options activity has intensified, particularly in August 15th $42.5 and $43.5 calls, reflecting high leverage and liquidity for near-term bets. However, bearish signals persist, including a negative MACD and moderate implied volatility of 36.26%.

Backtest analysis of FCX’s performance following intraday surges of at least 2% shows favorable short-to-medium-term outcomes. Over 603 historical instances, the stock delivered 54.23% 3-day win rates and 59.37% 30-day win rates, with average returns of 0.55% and 3.98% respectively. The maximum observed return of 6.77% occurred on day 59, underscoring the potential for cumulative gains through repeated momentum plays.