FactSet Plummets 6.2% Amid Guidance Woes and AI Spending Surge – What’s Next for the Data Giant?

Summary
• FactSet (FDS) plunges 6.19% to $270.53, hitting its 52-week low of $269.895
• Guidance miss and AI-driven cost overruns trigger investor panic
• 52-week high of $499.87 now feels like a distant memory
• Options volatility surges as traders bet on short-term volatility

FactSet’s stock has imploded in intraday trading, shedding nearly 6.2% as a weaker-than-expected fiscal 2026 outlook and rising AI expenditures collide with investor sentiment. The selloff has pushed the stock to its 52-week low, with technical indicators flashing caution. Meanwhile, options activity suggests a sharp shift in market positioning, as traders brace for potential follow-through selling.

Guidance Miss and AI Investment Overhang Weigh on FactSet
FactSet’s sharp decline stems from a dual blow: a fiscal 2026 revenue forecast that fell short of expectations and a strategic pivot toward AI and employee bonuses that has strained margins. The company’s recent integration with Macrobond and increased R&D spending have raised eyebrows, with analysts questioning whether the long-term innovation narrative justifies near-term costs. A 39.5% year-to-date price drop and a 36.7% total shareholder return decline have already eroded confidence, but the latest guidance shortfall has accelerated the sell-off. With the stock trading at a 14.7% discount to the $338.13 fair value estimate, the market is pricing in a prolonged period of margin pressures and competitive challenges from AI-driven rivals.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with FDS20251121P270 and FDS20251219P270
• 200-day average: $409.15 (well below current price)
• RSI: 57.8 (neutral but trending lower)
• MACD: -7.72 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $270.53, near the lower band ($275.21)

FactSet’s technical profile suggests a continuation of the downtrend, with key support levels at $275.21 (lower Bollinger Band) and $285.99 (30D support). The RSI’s 57.8 reading indicates moderate bearish momentum, while the MACD’s negative value and bearish histogram confirm the downward bias. Options traders are capitalizing on this with high-leverage put contracts. Two top picks from the options chain are:

• FDS20251121P270
- Strike: $270 | Expiration: 2025-11-21 | IV: 32.88% | Leverage: 28.28% | Delta: -0.4986 | Theta: -0.0329 | Gamma: 0.0176 | Turnover: 18,809
- IV (Implied Volatility): Suggests moderate volatility expectations
- Leverage: High potential for price amplification
- Delta: Sensitive to price moves below $270
- Theta: Low time decay, ideal for short-term holds
- Gamma: Strong sensitivity to price swings
- Turnover: High liquidity for entry/exit
- Payoff (5% downside): $256.50 → $13.50 profit per contract
- Why it stands out: This put option offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, with a high gamma to capitalize on a potential breakdown below $270.

• FDS20251219P270
- Strike: $270 | Expiration: 2025-12-19 | IV: 39.16% | Leverage: 16.79% | Delta: -0.4734 | Theta: -0.0783 | Gamma: 0.0100 | Turnover: 10,318
- IV: Higher volatility expectations for December
- Leverage: Moderate amplification potential
- Delta: Sensitive to price moves below $270
- Theta: Moderate time decay, suitable for medium-term holds
- Gamma: Slight sensitivity to price swings
- Turnover: Sufficient liquidity for position management
- Payoff (5% downside): $256.50 → $13.50 profit per contract
- Why it stands out: This December-dated put offers extended time to capture a potential breakdown, with elevated IV reflecting market anticipation of further volatility.

Action Alert: Aggressive bears should prioritize FDS20251121P270 for a short-term play on a $270 breakdown, while FDS20251219P270 suits those expecting a prolonged selloff into December. Both contracts offer compelling risk/reward profiles in a stock trading near its 52-week low.

Backtest FactSet Stock Performance
Below is the event-driven back-test you requested. (The interactive chart opens on the right-hand side.)Key findings (concise):• Only 3 qualifying plunge events were found over the period. • Average 1-day rebound was a modest +0.18 %, with win-rate 33 %. • 30-day post-event return averaged +0.74 %, vs benchmark -0.66 %. • None of the horizons show statistical significance given the small sample.Interpretation: For FactSet, a single-day drop exceeding 6 % has not historically offered a reliable short-term mean-reversion edge since 2022; the sample is too small to draw firm conclusions.

FactSet’s Freefall: Time to Buy the Dip or Ride the Downtrend?
FactSet’s 6.2% intraday plunge has created a stark divergence between its long-term fair value narrative and near-term technical headwinds. While the $338.13 price target suggests a 24% upside, the stock’s 34.0% adjusted operating margin and rising AI costs pose immediate risks. Traders should monitor the $275.21 (lower Bollinger Band) and $285.99 (30D support) levels for potential rebounds or further breakdowns. Meanwhile, the sector leader Simon Property Group (SPG) is down 0.87%, signaling broader market caution. Bottom line: If $270 breaks, FDS20251121P270 offers a high-leverage play on the next leg down. For now, the bearish bias remains intact.