Fabrinet Shares Plummet 12.8% Despite Record $910M Revenue as $610M Volume Ranks 160th in Active Stocks Supply Chain Bottlenecks and Margin Pressures Weigh

On August 19, 2025, Fabrinet (FN) shares fell 12.81% despite reporting record Q4 revenue of $910 million, a 21% year-over-year increase. The stock’s trading volume surged to $0.61 billion, ranking 160th among the day’s most active stocks. Earnings highlights included a $2.65 non-GAAP EPS and $3.4 billion in full-year revenue, driven by strong optical communications and telecom segments. CEO Seamus Grady announced a partnership with Amazon Web Services, which is expected to bolster revenue in fiscal 2026, and revealed construction of a new 2 million-square-foot facility to expand manufacturing capacity.

However, near-term challenges emerged. Datacom revenue declined 12% year-over-year, and supply chain bottlenecks for 1.6T products are anticipated to weigh on Q1 performance. The company also warned of temporary margin pressures due to new product ramps, with Q1 guidance of $910–$950 million in revenue and $2.75–$2.90 in EPS. Shareholder returns remained robust, with $22 billion in buybacks in Q4, though operating cash flow was modest at $55 million. Analysts noted mixed reactions, with price targets ranging from $220 to $360, reflecting optimism about long-term growth but caution over near-term execution risks.

The 3-day win rate for FN after a 12% intraday drop was 52.85%, with a 30-day win rate of 63.45. Maximum returns during the backtest period reached 12.39%, highlighting volatility as a key factor for short-term traders. The strategy of buying top 500 stocks by daily volume and holding for one day yielded a 12.5% return on initial investment as of the latest data, underscoring the potential but limited reliability of trading volume as a short-term indicator.