Fabricated Powell Resignation Letter Debunked as Hoax 18% Odds for 2025 Exit

A recent social media frenzy over a purported resignation letter from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been debunked as a hoax, with the document exposed as a fabricated and error-ridden text. The claim originated from U.S. Senator Mike Lee, who posted an image of a letter allegedly authored by Powell stating his immediate departure from the Fed. The post was swiftly deleted after scrutiny revealed inconsistencies such as an incoherent official seal, grammatical errors, and an uncharacteristically informal tone. Lee later admitted he could not verify the authenticity of the document.

Despite the rumor's rapid spread, particularly among cryptocurrency and conservative circles, no official announcements have confirmed Powell’s resignation. The Federal Reserve, White House, and Powell himself have not addressed the claim. Experts and officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have reiterated that Powell remains in his role, with his term set to expire in May 2026. Bessent emphasized there is “nothing that tells me he should step down right now,” underscoring the lack of credible evidence supporting the rumor.

The hoax has amplified existing political pressures on Powell, who faces criticism from figures like Donald Trump over his interest rate policies and handling of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation. Trump has publicly demanded Powell’s resignation and begun soliciting potential replacements. Additionally, Federal Housing Finance Agency Chairman William Pulte, a vocal Fed critic, has speculated that Powell’s exit is imminent, citing “reliable sources.” However, prediction markets such as Polymarket have seen the odds of Powell’s removal by 2025 drop to 18%, reflecting skepticism about the likelihood of his resignation.

Powell’s leadership has been under heightened scrutiny amid broader debates over the Fed’s policy decisions, particularly its reluctance to lower interest rates. Critics argue that prolonged high rates are harming economic growth, while supporters maintain that cautious action is necessary to curb inflation. The resignation rumor has further politicized discussions around central banking, with elected officials leveraging public sentiment to question the Fed’s independence. Meanwhile, Powell faces a separate investigation by the Department of Justice over allegations of perjury related to the renovation project, though this has not prompted his departure.

Fact-checkers have uniformly concluded that the resignation claim is false, emphasizing the absence of official confirmation and the document’s numerous flaws. The incident highlights the risks of misinformation in financial and political discourse, with analysts urging stakeholders to rely on verified sources for updates. As of now, Powell continues to fulfill his duties, and his immediate future appears secure unless unforeseen circumstances arise. The episode serves as a reminder of the importance of critical scrutiny in an era where digital misinformation can rapidly influence public perception.