Exxon Mobil Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave 5 Target and Key Levels

The bullish cycle from the November 2025 low is now complete as a five-wave impulse. This structure has unfolded cleanly, with wave (3) concluding at a clear high of $131.72. The subsequent corrective pullback in wave (4) found its base at $128.30, establishing a firm support level.

Viewed technically, this sets up the final leg. The implied starting point for wave 5 is that wave (4) low of $128.30. The target zone for this final upward push is the prior wave 3 high, which remains the key resistance at $131.72. In other words, the market has already made the high for this wave 5; the only question is whether it will be tested and held.

The setup is now a classic technical battle. Wave 5 must reclaim that $131.72 level to confirm the full five-wave advance. Failure to do so would invalidate the bullish impulse structure. For now, the path of least resistance points higher, but the target is in sight.

Price Action and Volume: Confirming the Uptrend

The recent price action shows strong momentum behind the bullish wave 5 setup. Over the past 20 days, shares have climbed 12.6%, with a more concentrated 5.06% gain in just the last five days. This isn't just a slow grind; it's a clear uptrend with integrity. The weekly and monthly technical ratings both show a 'buy' signal, confirming the positive trend direction.

Volume supports the move. The stock trades on average 14.8 million shares per day, providing ample liquidity for the current price action. While the exact volume for the latest session isn't provided, the consistent daily turnover of over $2 billion indicates active participation. This liquidity is crucial for a stock at these levels, as it allows the trend to move without getting choked by thin trading.

From a technical trader's view, the setup is solid. The price is above key moving averages, and the relative strength indicators are neutral to positive. The recent pullback to the $128.30 wave 4 low was a healthy consolidation, not a breakdown. Now, with the stock testing the prior wave 3 high at $131.72, the volume and momentum suggest buyers are in control. The path of least resistance remains higher, but the target is now in sight.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels

The Elliott Wave thesis hinges on a few key price levels. The immediate resistance is the wave 4 low at $128.30. This level is critical because it marks the base for the current wave 5 advance. A decisive break above it would confirm the bullish impulse is intact and pave the way for a test of the prior wave 3 high.

The major support to watch is the swing low from the November correction at $117.90. This is the ultimate floor for the five-wave cycle. If the stock breaks below this level, it would invalidate the entire bullish Elliott Wave structure, signaling a deeper correction is underway. For now, that level remains intact, providing a safety net for the uptrend.

On a shorter-term basis, there's a key intraday resistance at $121.37. This level represents a prior swing high and could act as a speed bump for the current wave 5 rally. Watch for volume spikes here to gauge whether buyers can power through or if sellers are stepping in.

In short, the setup is clear. The path of least resistance is higher, but the market must first clear the $128.30 wave 4 level. The $117.90 swing low is the line in the sand for the overall thesis. Any move toward the $121.37 resistance will be a test of buyer conviction before the final push toward the $131.72 target.

Risk Management and Stop Levels

For any trade in this setup, defining clear risk parameters is non-negotiable. The Elliott Wave structure provides the blueprint for where to place stops.

The absolute critical level to protect against is the $117.90 swing low from the November correction. This is the ultimate support for the entire five-wave impulse cycle. A close below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis entirely, signaling the uptrend is broken. Any trader with a long position must have a stop-loss order placed below this key floor to manage catastrophic risk.

For a more tactical, wave 5-specific trade, use the $128.30 wave 4 low as a trailing stop. This level marks the base for the current advance and acts as a dynamic support. If the price pulls back to this point, it confirms the wave 5 rally is losing momentum. A stop placed just below $128.30 allows the trade to ride the trend while protecting capital if the corrective phase begins.

The bottom line is that the broader support at $117.90 is the line in the sand. While the $128.30 level is the immediate guardrail for the wave 5 trade, a decisive break below $117.90 would force a complete reassessment. Always place stops to protect against a breakdown of the core impulse structure, and use the wave 4 low as a trailing stop to capture the full leg higher.